152
FXUS64 KLZK 191901
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
201 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

H500 ridging to the east of the area will expand west over the
state Thu-Fri. This will provide dry conditions along with
increasing temperatures the next couple of days. Td values will
largely remain below 70 F which will limit heat indices to below
heat advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The major storyline regarding the long-term forecast period will be
the extremely hot afternoon high temperatures and the lack of
overnight/early morning relief across the state, especially going
into the weekend and early next week.

In the upper lvls, a ridge of high pressure along with a high
pressure center will be positioned over the Mid-South region of the
CONUS to begin the weekend. Throughout the weekend, this area of
stout ridging will meander westward over the Southern Plains during
the weekend and into early next week before becoming fixated over
the Four Corner region of the CONUS. It is during this period on
Sunday and Monday afternoon, in which, the Little Rock metro along
with several other locations across Arkansas could near, reach, or
even eclipse the century mark for a high temperature (which would be
the first official 100 degree day for any location within Arkansas
for 2024 if this is to pan out).

Heat index values over this stretch will be particularly dangerous
as well with afternoon values on Sunday and Monday in the 100s for
the majority of the state with some locations making a run into the
mid to upper 100s prompting possible heat advisories for portions of
Arkansas on these days. It will be imperative to take breaks out of
the heat via an air conditioned location regardless if recreating or
working in these conditions along with remaining hydrated.

Additionally, temperatures at night will offer little to no relief
with such intense daytime heating with most locations only falling
into the mid to upper 70s.

At the sfc, predominately southwesterly to south-southwesterly winds
will keep temperatures elevated with sfc high pressure dominating
the region with overall fair and dry conditions. The only exception
will be the scant chance of POPs leading to the outlier possibility
of isolated showers and thunderstorm chances given the presence of
moisture via the Gulf of Mexico and parcels reaching their
convective temperature (however, this activity would be isolated in
nature and not offer much reprieve from the heat overall)
transitioning from early next week into the middle of next week.

Temperatures over the long-term forecast period will be above normal
for both afternoon high temperatures and overnight/morning low
temperatures compared to climatological normals for this time of the
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. A few showers are
possible, but coverage should remain limited. Winds will vary from
E-S at times, at less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  91  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         72  94  69  95 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       67  88  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  74  92  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     72  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      70  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  69  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        71  92  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     71  92  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   73  92  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         70  92  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      72  92  72  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67