833
FXUS64 KLZK 142356
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
656 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The short-term period will remain forecasted as advertised over the
last few days with the pesky remnant low pressure that was once
Hurricane Francine continuing to meander across the region and
spiral drizzle and some light rain into portions of northeastern,
north-central, and central Arkansas.

For the remainder of Saturday into Saturday Night, expect the
overall POPs across the state and QPF amounts to remain low as any
drizzle or light rain that is experienced will not amount to much.
In response, temperatures across Arkansas will depend solely on
location. Locations that are experiencing cloud cover and/or some
drizzle with periods of light rain will continue to only see high
temperatures rise into the mid 70s to low 80s. Locations that are
impacted by less cloud cover and dry conditions will see high
temperatures that peak into the low to mid 80s.

Into Sunday and Sunday Night, expect an uptick of precipitation
chances with slightly higher rainfall totals than what has been
experienced on Saturday as a large plume of tropical moisture via
the Gulf of Mexico is expected to wrap around the remnant low which
will be positioned across the Mid-South region of the CONUS with
bands of light rain with a few convective bands (lightning within
the precipitation at times) not out of the question which will move
over eastern and central parts of Arkansas. The high temperature
trends will continue dependent on if your location is experiencing
cloud cover and/or precipitation with the effects being felt even
more by a few degrees as high temperatures are anticipated to remain
below average across central and eastern Arkansas.

For Monday into Monday Night, a rinse and repeat (no pun intended)
forecast from Saturday and Sunday is to be expected with slightly
lesser forecast QPF or rainfall totals throughout the day for
central and eastern Arkansas. Monday Night will likely be the last
stand of the leftovers from Francine as POP chances are expected to
lessen to almost near zero overnight on Monday before drier
conditions begin to welcome the entire state for the remainder of
the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Long term PD continues to advertise drier and generally warming
condns for the FA, thru much of next week. Upper flow looks to
remain weak, w/ compact H500 ridging developing over the Srn Cntrl
US on Tues, as more prominent height falls and troughing is progged
to occur over the Wrn US, and a warm-core tropical low moves inland
over the Ern Seaboard.

Locally, the FA wl remain split b/w the influence of broad Midwest
sfc high pressure, and lee sfc cyclonic flow over the Cntrl and Srn
Great Plains. W/ this sfc pres gradient in place, winds wl lkly tend
to favor Erly to S/Erly components for the most part, and thus,
support some modest low-level WAA, though more N/Erly winds acrs
N/Ern AR wl still support cooler (generally near-normal) temps
relative to the remainder of the FA. Elsewhere, temps will trend
towards above-normal readings in the upper 80s to low 90s thru the
end of next week, before some low Chc PoPs become mentionable again
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Diurnal showers have developed and will continue through sunset
across central and east Arkansas. Low clouds will continue over
the state tonight. An increase in moisture and instability
associated with the remnants of Francine will bring chances of
showers to the area throughout the day Sunday. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  75  66  82 /  50  80  40  40
Camden AR         66  81  67  80 /  10  50  20  40
Harrison AR       64  76  63  78 /  10  40  20  20
Hot Springs AR    67  82  67  82 /  10  40  10  30
Little Rock   AR  70  79  69  82 /  20  60  30  30
Monticello AR     67  82  68  80 /  10  70  30  50
Mount Ida AR      65  82  65  82 /   0  30  10  30
Mountain Home AR  65  75  65  81 /  30  60  40  20
Newport AR        68  76  67  81 /  60  80  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     67  79  67  80 /  20  70  40  50
Russellville AR   67  81  67  82 /  10  40  20  20
Searcy AR         67  77  67  82 /  40  80  40  40
Stuttgart AR      69  78  68  80 /  30  80  50  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...51