Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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777 FXUS64 KLZK 162309 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 609 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Unsettled weather has continued for much of the day with overcast skies and on and off precipitation moving across large portions of the state. As a result, temperatures have warmed very little across the state through the day with afternoon temperatures in northern Arkansas struggling to get out of the 60`s. Southern Arkansas has seen the best warming of the day with temperatures warming into the lower 80`s. Needless to say, temperatures are well below normal for this time of year. This afternoon and evening rain showers will continue. While no location will see a washout, some light rain will be seen. Expect rain chances to finally come to an end during the overnight hours...however patchy fog will be possible with the best chance for heavy fog being mainly across northwest portions of the CWA.wrk Models are in agreement that Tuesday will be a dry day except in extreme southern Arkansas. Rain chances will linger across the southern border of the state through much of the day on Tuesday. Models continue to hint at an upper level ridge to build into the region towards the start of the long term with temperatures forecast to warm back to near normal levels or above. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 90 degree weather will be back at the beginning of the extended term, and although the 90 degree weather will give way to highs in the 80`s after a few days, warm temperatures will prevail regardless. The extended term beings with a narrow ridge across the central US, built up between coastal trofs. With the ridge in place, 90 degree weather will be back in place across the state. By the weekend an upper low will begin to move up thru the four corners region and lift over Missouri and into the upper midwest by Monday. As the ridge weakens, daily highs will relax into the 80`s. At the surface, a cold front will try to move into the northwest part of the state over the late weekend into Monday. The models seem content to stall out the front just outside the area, but this will contribute to some rain chances starting on Saturday thru Monday, primarily across the NW and northern portions of the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Scattered SHRA and some patchy DZ will remain possible this evening...with best chances across the SRN half of the area. Expect chances to decrease by later tonight and overnight...but some patchy fog will also be possible. Expect CIGs/VIS to improve throughout the day on Tue...with dominant VFR conditions expected Tue afternoon for most sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 63 85 61 85 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 66 85 65 89 / 40 20 0 0 Harrison AR 61 83 61 84 / 30 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 66 87 65 89 / 20 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 67 87 66 89 / 20 10 0 0 Monticello AR 67 86 66 89 / 50 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 64 86 63 89 / 20 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 62 85 61 85 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 63 84 60 84 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 65 86 64 87 / 40 10 0 0 Russellville AR 64 87 64 88 / 20 0 0 0 Searcy AR 64 87 62 86 / 20 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 65 85 63 86 / 20 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...62