Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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662 FXUS64 KLZK 180503 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Eroding Rex block/weakening ridge over the northeast United States has allowed the remnants of Francine to finally exit the area to the east. There has been more sunshine across much of northern/eastern/central Arkansas this afternoon, with clouds hanging on farther south/west. This is along/north of a boundary stalled along the Gulf Coast. At the surface, weak high pressure and a clearing sky/light wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain will yield patches of dense fog later tonight into Wednesday morning. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required depending on the extent of the fog. Moving ahead, the Gulf Coast boundary will wash out, and large scale troughing from the northern Plains into the western states will result in ridging over the central/southern Plains. The ridge will build slowly to the east, and this will bring us warmer temperatures, especially on Thursday. For the most part, above average readings are expected. There is also no rain in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Not a lot of changes from the thinking yesterday at this time. The upper ridge building up over the central US during the short term will extend thru Friday and Saturday, followed by some changes later in the weekend. A closed upper low will move across MO and lift up toward the Great Lakes region, impacting the northern portions of the forecast area a bit, before a more broad trof takes its place across the central sections of the country late in the period. At the surface a cold front will approach NW AR and will stall out, and will eventually wash out into the NW portion of the forecast area on Tuesday. All of this will bring some chances for precip across primarily the northern reaches of the forecast area from Sunday onwards, although there will be some chances all the way down into the western and central portions of the state. It is not inconceivable that an organized cluster of storms during this period could form over the northern or northwestern reaches of the area and build or propagate further southward into the state. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Latest observations are showing patchy fog already beginning to impact western and southern terminals across the state as of 12 AM CDT Wednesday, thus dropping flight category to MVFR with isolated moments of IFR in respect to VSBY. The trend of VSBY lowering throughout the early morning hours of Wednesday will continue dropping flight category at western and southern sites to as low as IFR flight category. The northern and central terminals may see some patchy fog resulting a decline to MVFR flight category. However, flight category at all terminals will return to VFR by later Wednesday morning as the fog dissipates and remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 85 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 89 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 85 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 90 65 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 89 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 89 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 89 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 85 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 84 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 88 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 86 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 86 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...74