Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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397 FXUS64 KLZK 152351 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 651 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 To begin the period, light showers are expected to continue through the afternoon and evening hours before heavier rain become possible overnight through Monday. This rain is from the remnants of what was Francine that continues to meander around the Mississippi Valley due to a weak steering pattern aloft. Eventually, the remnants push out of the area as high pressure builds back into the state Tuesday...this will bring calm and drier conditions to end the period. The heaviest of the rain is expected across portions of central and eastern Arkansas where one to two inches of rain is expected through Monday night. With that said, areas across eastern Arkansas will see the best chance for locally higher amounts. Showers and cloud cover has kept temperatures quite comfortable across much of the state today and will do so again tomorrow. Highs are currently expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Monday before rising into the 80s by Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 No significant chances to mention at this time regarding the long term fcst... Long term guidance continues to advertise drier and generally warming condns acrs the FA, thru much of this comg week. Upper flow is progged to remain weak over the Cntrl US, w/ compact H500 ridging building over the Srn Cntrl US early in the PD, as more prominent height falls and troughing occurs over the Wrn US, and a warm-core tropical low moves inland over the Ern Seaboard. Under weaker upper flow and modest ridging, the local wx pattern should remain benign thru at least the end of this week. At the sfc, the FA wl remain split b/w the influence of broad Midwest sfc high pressure, and lee sfc cyclonic flow over the Cntrl and Srn Great Plains. W/ this sfc pres gradient in place, winds wl lkly tend to favor Erly to S/Erly components everyday, and thus, support some modest low-level WAA, though more N/Erly winds acrs N/Ern AR wl still support cooler (generally near-normal) temps relative to the remainder of the FA. Elsewhere, temps will trend towards above-normal readings in the upper 80s to low 90s thru the end of the week, before some higher Chc PoPs become mentionable again next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Showers continue to rotate into east Arkansas and low clouds will continue over the state tonight. Additional showers will continue through the night and into Monday. Heavier rain is anticipated late tonight into Monday. Rain chances will be highest in central and east sections. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 67 79 63 86 / 70 60 0 0 Camden AR 68 80 65 85 / 20 60 10 10 Harrison AR 64 76 61 83 / 30 50 0 0 Hot Springs AR 67 78 66 87 / 30 40 0 0 Little Rock AR 69 79 67 87 / 60 60 0 0 Monticello AR 69 80 67 86 / 50 70 10 10 Mount Ida AR 65 78 63 86 / 20 40 0 0 Mountain Home AR 65 78 62 85 / 50 50 0 0 Newport AR 68 79 63 83 / 70 50 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 68 78 65 85 / 60 70 10 0 Russellville AR 67 78 64 86 / 30 40 0 0 Searcy AR 67 79 64 86 / 80 70 0 0 Stuttgart AR 69 78 65 85 / 80 70 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...51