588
FXUS64 KMAF 230442
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The warm-up is well underway today, with only a few high clouds
to be seen across the west, and scattered cumulus across the south
and east. Highs are on target to top out a few degrees below
normal this afternoon, in the lower to middle 90s across the
plains, upper 80s in the mountains, and around 100 degrees along
the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Increasing subsidence due to the
westward expansion of the southern CONUS ridge of high pressure
largely puts a lid on potential convection today, aside from a
shower or thunderstorm or two across the highest elevations of the
Davis Mountains during the late afternoon. Continued southerly to
southeasterly surface flow will maintain some semblance of low-
level moisture across the area, yielding a quiescent night tonight
with lows progged to drop into the middle 60s to lower 70s for
most. Heading into Sunday, the warm- up continues as the ridge
exerts even more influence over the region, with increasing
heights and a developing thermal ridge yielding above normal highs
in the middle to upper 90s for most, and 100s along the Pecos and
Rio Grande Valleys. Given the intense heating, confidence is
greater that a few isolated diurnally-driven thunderstorms will
develop over the Davis Mountains, though these storms will
generally remain confined to the higher terrain and immediately
adjacent areas. Otherwise, hot and dry will be the rule,
continuing well into the extended.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Warmer than average highs for late June are expected in the long
term. Temperatures rise into the 90s and 100s each day as as upper
ridging that built W from southern and northeast CONUS this
weekend holds. Under southeast flow and a mix of clouds each
night, lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late June are also
forecast, with 70s, 60s in the higher elevations, Marfa Plateau,
and lower Trans Pecos. Two subtle atmospheric patterns could
evolve: either ridging stays in place and maintains strength, or
ridging weakens allowing a weak cold front or dryline to move in
from the north as a trough over the Pac NW is able to dig farther
southeast. The former is what European ENS ensembles are showing.
The latter are what the GFS and Canadian ensembles are showing.
Highs this week have trended lower Wednesday into next weekend, so
it is likely that while the ridging will hold, it will weaken
enough for slightly "cooler" air to the north and west to make its
way into the area midweek. This is also reflected in how lows
have trended slightly lower over northern Lea County, northern
Permian Basin, and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos for
midweek into next weekend. Went with NBM guidance for temperatures
regardless. If the upper air pattern develops more in line with
the ENS solution, we could be looking at a wider area of triple
digit readings along the Pecos River, Permian Basin, and Reeves
County plains into Stockton Plateau. We would also see rain
chances remain confined to elevated heating of terrain over the
Sacramento Foothills and Davis Mountains. If the upper air pattern
develops more in line with the GFS and Canadian solutions, we
could be seeing highs above the triple digit mark only in the
usual warmer spots along the Pecos River and over the Reeves
County plains as well as near the Rio Grande, with upper 90s at
most over the Permian Basin into Terrell County. Additionally,
with fronts able to move into the area with weaker ridging as
opposed to staying farther north if there`s stronger ridging, we
may see more widespread shower and storm chances over the SE NM
plains into regions in W TX closer to the Pecos River, as well as
the northwestern Permian Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR prevails with southeast winds around 10-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  99  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  98  72  99 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   70  98  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  97  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  91  70  92 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                    65  96  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  93  61  94 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     69  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71 100  72 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29