953
FXUS64 KMAF 172336
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VIS and IR SAT show mostly clear skies with clouds over the Davis
Mountains into SE NM plains streaming north in return flow, with
the clouds indicating low level moisture being advected along a
weak surface trough/dryline over far W TX. An upper level trough
located over the Great Basin will develop farther to the northeast
over the northern Rockies. With closer proximity of the trough,
shear will increase this afternoon for western portions of the
area. Model soundings show long hodographs and an inverted-v
shape, indicating that the strongest storms that develop could
very well contain damaging winds. SPC indicates marginal risk
farther to the northwest of the CWA, so while strong storms are
possible, widespread severe weather is not expected. CAMs indicate
storms developing this afternoon and continuing into tonight as
they move east. East of the TX/NM border, storm chances decrease
significantly, especially given the less favorable thermodynamic
environment and loss of daytime heating by the time storms move
farther east. Highs today rise into the 90s, 80s over higher
elevations, and a triple digits right along the Rio Grande in the
Big Bend. Tonight lows remain above average, only falling into the
70s and above for most of the Permian Basin and Rio Grande and
into the 60s elsewhere. Scattered high clouds and southeasterly
surface winds will both limit radiational cooling and keep dew
point temperatures in the 60s, 50s westernmost regions.

Wednesday, the trough will be positioned farther northward, with
decreased shear leading to less favorable conditions for storm
updraft organization and maintenance. However, FV3 and WRF are
showing storms moving northeast from the Stockton Plateau into
Permian Basin Wednesday afternoon, with FV3 showing wider coverage
and greater intensity of discrete storms. The SPC has a marginal
risk well to the northeast of the CWA over the TX PH on Wednesday,
but it is not of the question that strong storms will again be
possible tomorrow afternoon and evening over portions of the area.
Highs will be similar to Tuesday, with lows Wednesday night
slightly warmer than tonight as a result of longer duration of
southeast winds advecting in warm, humid air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The long term forecast remains on track as discussed over the last
several days. The large western CONUS trough is expected to
transition into a more pronounced shortwave that begins to
translate east and across the central CONUS by the weekend.
Thursday serves as a brief lull before this weather system
arrives. Temperatures will be relatively hot and well into the 90s
for most with low 100s through portions of the river valleys
under sunny skies.

As the shortwave trough enters the Four Corners region, lee
troughing develops ahead of it across the high plains. This sets
up  a mild start to Friday with moist, return flow keeping
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s for many. On the plus
side, the approaching trough should allow for a slight chance of
thunderstorms across western portions of the area by afternoon,
where proximity to the trough and orographic features provide the
greatest likelihood of convective development. Temperatures remain
nearly identical Friday afternoon to Thursday afternoon.

Heights begin to fall as we head into Saturday as the shortwave
trough begins to move across the Colorado/New Mexico border. With
closer proximity to the trough, much of the area can expect at
least a slight chance of thunderstorms alongside slightly cooler
temperatures. Once the trough ejects across the Great Plains on
Sunday, a cold front is set to move through the region.
Unfortunately, drier continental air with this front should end
thunderstorm chances. On the bright side, temperatures are
expected to return to near normal by Sunday and even slightly
below normal to start the new week.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The main concerns this forecast period are thunderstorms early
this evening, and another round of thunderstorms after 19Z
Wednesday. Currently, have maintained VCTS mention for HOB through
03Z, with a storm to the west of the terminal that could produce
lightning strikes and erratic gusty winds, with gusty winds and
blowing dust also possible along associated outflow boundaries.
Storms this evening will weaken after sunset, and despite
additional storms possible Wednesday afternoon, low probability
and uncertainty in timing precludes mention at any terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with elevated/gusty
southerly to southeasterly winds this evening becoming light after
06Z, with intermittent gusts returning after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 67  95  69  96 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  96  71  97 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  88  67  89 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    67  94  68  94 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    65  91  64  92 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     71  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  94  73  95 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     73  98  74  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...84