820
FXUS64 KMAF 251104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Look for another hot day on tap for the area, but with isolated
storms possible over more of SE NM than what we have the past few
days. The center of the upper ridge will shift west today allowing
for slightly better moisture to make its way in to the region along
with less subsidence. Isolated showers and storms should develop as
usual across the Davis Mountains with more storms developing across
portions of eastern NM during peak heating. Given weak northerly
flow around the ridge storm will have a southern trajectory. A storm
or two could make into northern portions of the Permian Basin, but
the best chance for any measurable rain will stay over NM.
Temperatures will continue an upward trend today with highs reaching
100 for all but the higher terrain above 5K ft. After a mild night,
we will likely repeat everything Wednesday. The only difference may
be better coverage of storms across the west from Artesia south to
the Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Upper ridging flattens across the South as a strong trough enters
the northern Rockies late week. Unfortunately, the hot temperatues
will remain with widespread 100s for highs through Friday. With the
ridge being weaker, a daily shot at showers and storms will continue
across the west, but capping will keep it dry east of the Pecos
River. The center of the upper ridge shifts east allowing for less
subsidence this weekend and possibly a front entering the TX PH.
Expect a continued shot for scattered storms across the higher
terrain. Storms could form along the front to our north this weekend
and move south, but large uncertainty exists as to how far south
this activity will make it. Will keep the best chance of storms both
Saturday and Sunday across the northern Permian Basin and SE NM,
closer to the front. With better moisture in place, we will shave a
few degrees off highs with most locations back into the 90s. Drier
and hotter conditions return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Continued VFR through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  77 103  77 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                104  78 104  77 /  20  20  20  20
Dryden                   99  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           102  76 101  74 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           95  75  95  72 /  20  30  40  30
Hobbs                   101  74 101  74 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                    97  68  96  65 /  30  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport    100  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  100  76 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    105  79 104  77 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29