Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
527 FXUS64 KMAF 201730 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall in Mexico later this morning and bring a plume of tropical moisture through Mexico and into West Texas and SE NM. Low clouds and widespread showers will be the name of the game through the day today with a majority of the rainfall south of the I-10 corridor. SE NM and the Permian Basin will see markedly less rain overall, but should still see something measurable(>=0.01") when all is said and done. Across Terrell and Brewster counties amounts look to top our between a half inch to an inch with locally higher amounts due to terrain influences or training of showers. With overcast skies and intermittent rain, highs struggle to reach the low 80s for most with 70s in the higher elevations. Expect showers to continue on and off overnight tonight as the bulk of the moisture moves to the northwest into southern New Mexico. Morning lows end up in the 60s to low 70s for most. Decreasing showers and clouds on Friday allow temperatures to rebound back into the upper 80s to low 90s for most. The highest chances for rain Friday afternoon will be confined to the higher elevations and to areas to the west with little, if any precipitation expected across the Permian Basin. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The extended forecast is rather pedestrian, as all the interesting weather is front-loaded in the short term. Friday, a flat, upper ridge is forecast to cover the southern CONUS, centered just above the ArklaTex. This feature will be in the process of developing WSW, arriving over New Mexico Saturday night or so, and remaining there through the extended. The net result of this will be a gradual increase in temperatures each day, with highs pulling above normal again by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures peak Wednesday as highs top out ~ 7-9 F above normal. Thicknesses/temperatures come down a bit Thursday. W/this in mind, heat advisories will return as soon as Monday. With respect to convection, prospects look slim-to-none under the ridge, and confined to diurnally-driven activity over the higher terrain, if that. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Widespread MVFR ceilings with some embedded IFR ceilings in -SHRA and visibilities between 3-5SM in BR will prevail across all area terminals through at least 21/00Z. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression "Alberto" will continue to stream over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico overnight, leading to a high confidence in IFR ceilings developing during the early morning hours Friday. Expect a slow improvement in ceilings to MVFR around 21/15Z or so. Winds will remain easterly to southeasterly in the 10 to 15 knot range, decreasing some overnight, then picking up again into the 10 to 15 knot range before noon Friday. -bc && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 92 70 95 / 30 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 88 68 92 / 80 30 0 0 Dryden 71 86 70 88 / 80 30 10 0 Fort Stockton 70 88 69 92 / 80 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 64 80 65 87 / 80 50 10 0 Hobbs 67 87 66 92 / 60 10 0 0 Marfa 62 84 59 88 / 80 40 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 70 89 70 92 / 40 0 0 0 Odessa 71 89 70 92 / 40 0 0 0 Wink 72 92 72 95 / 60 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...93