Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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162 FXUS64 KMAF 200845 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall in Mexico later this morning and bring a plume of tropical moisture through Mexico and into West Texas and SE NM. Low clouds and widespread showers will be the name of the game through the day today with a majority of the rainfall south of the I-10 corridor. SE NM and the Permian Basin will see markedly less rain overall, but should still see something measureable(>=0.01") when all is said and done. Across Terrell and Brewster counties amounts look to top our between a half inch to an inch with locally higher amounts due to terrain influences or training of showers. With overcast skies and intermitten rain, highs struggle to reach the low 80s for most with 70s in the higher elevations. Expect showers to continue on and off overnight tonight as the bulk of the moisture moves to the northwest into southern New Mexico. Morning lows end up in the 60s to low 70s for most. Decreasing showers and clouds on Friday allow temperatures to rebound back into the upper 80s to low 90s for most. The highest chances for rain Friday afternoon will be confined to the higher elevations and to areas to the west with little, if any precipitation expected across the Permian Basin. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The extended forecast is rather pedestrian, as all the interesting weather is front-loaded in the short term. Friday, a flat, upper ridge is forecast to cover the southern CONUS, centered just above the ArklaTex. This feature will be in the process of developing WSW, arriving over New Mexico Saturday night or so, and remaining there through the extended. The net result of this will be a gradual increase in temperatures each day, with highs pulling above normal again by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures peak Wednesday as highs top out ~ 7-9 F above normal. Thicknesses/temperatures come down a bit Thursday. W/this in mind, heat advisories will return as soon as Monday. With respect to convection, prospects look slim-to-none under the ridge, and confined to diurnally-driven activity over the higher terrain, if that. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 MVFR CIGs will gradually fill in at each terminal from east to west over the next few hours with some terminals briefly reaching IFR over the course of the morning and through the day on Thursday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible through the TAF period and amendments with tempos will be necessary at times given radar trends. Gusty easterly winds prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 83 71 91 70 / 50 20 0 0 Carlsbad 79 69 87 68 / 80 70 50 0 Dryden 83 71 85 70 / 80 80 40 10 Fort Stockton 81 70 88 69 / 80 70 30 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 65 80 65 / 70 70 60 10 Hobbs 78 67 87 66 / 70 50 10 0 Marfa 74 61 83 59 / 90 80 50 10 Midland Intl Airport 80 71 89 70 / 60 30 0 0 Odessa 80 71 88 70 / 70 40 0 0 Wink 83 73 91 72 / 70 60 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...93