410
FXUS64 KMAF 020458
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1158 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Lather.  Rinse.  Repeat.

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered just west of the ArklaTex
this afternoon, resulting in a relatively "cool" afternoon across
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Convection is trying to
develop over the higher terrain, but CAMs suggest this is a futile
effort, and only isolated activity is expected, if that.

Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is forecast to redevelop.  Although skies will
be mostly clear, the LLJ will keep mixing in play, retarding
radiational cooling and keeping overnight minimums ~ 8-10 F above
normal.

Tuesday, while the ridge will shift slightly east, thicknesses here
will nevertheless increase, adding 2-3 F onto today`s highs, once
again yielding triple-digit highs most locations.  A Heat Advisory
of two may be needed, but forecast temperatures are right on the
fence attm.  For those who don`t like the warmer weather, Tuesday
will be perhaps the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge shifts
to the southeast CONUS after Tuesday, and a col develops over Texas.
Southeasterly upslope flow will result in diurnally-driven
convection over the higher terrain.  As a result of the ridge
shifting east, CAMs develop convection over the higher terrain and
even out onto the plains a bit, and are a little more optimistic
than today.  Even so, chances still look minimal, and QPF paltry.

Tuesday night, another 40+kt LLJ develops, yielding a carbon copy of
tonight, with convection gradually diminishing w/loss of daytime
heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Middle of the coming week remains warm as the ridge to the east
keeps temperatures above normal in the upper 90s to low 100s
areawide. A few spots may need a Heat Advisory issued for the
afternoon as temperatures in the mountains and down along the Rio
Grande reach near or just above criteria. Showers and storms will be
possible over the high elevations. Pattern changes on Thursday as
the ridge to the east weakens and moves further east. The Four
Corners ridge moves in from the West and brings northwesterly flow
aloft. This will bring shortwave trough around the edge of the ridge
and into our region. Increased rain chances will be seen Thursday
through Saturday with the highest chances on Friday. There remains
some uncertainty with storm coverage and amounts, but guidance
continues to be in good agreement on most areas receiving at least
some measurable rainfall.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions continue through the period. Southeast winds remain
elevated and gusty this evening before weakening slightly early
this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 104  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 76 103  76 102 /  10  10  20  30
Dryden                   73 102  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 103  75 103 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           72  94  73  93 /  10  20  30  50
Hobbs                    73 101  74 101 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    64  97  66  98 /  10  20  20  30
Midland Intl Airport     76 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76 102  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 106  77 106 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...91