Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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839 FXUS64 KMAF 232305 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 605 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 As noted below in the aviation section, a quasi-stationary clearing line bisects the CWA, with mostly cloudy skies extending southeast of a Gail to Odessa to Valentine line. Moist isentropic upglide will commence later this evening as a short wave trough approaches from the west and induces a return to southeasterly winds just off the deck. This will serve two purposes: the first is to keep the clouds across the southeastern CWA more or less intact and the second is to promote the development of fog just to the north and west of the clearing line, where radiational cooling and a collapse of the low- level T/Td spreads will promote efficient formation. There is the low (< 25 percent) potential of showers and thunderstorms overnight in between I-10 and I-20 as well, but QPF will be spotty at best. Temperatures overnight will fall into the upper 50s to lower 70s with light and variable winds becoming southeasterly as we head toward sunrise. Fog and low clouds will persist through the mid morning hours Tuesday over the southern Permian Basin; otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny. There is the outside (< 25 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with light east to southeast winds. Tuesday night should be nearly a carbon copy (minus the fog chances) of tonight`s conditions, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Deterministic and ensemble clusters depict broad troughing to the east of the area as secondary shortwave trough amplifies east over the ArkLaTex within larger long wave troughing stretching from the Great Lakes to Southern Great Plains and Southern Mississippi River Valley. A surface cold front associated with this trough will move through the area Wednesday afternoon, with cold air advection in its wake. However, with clearing skies allowing for diurnal heating, we are expecting near to above normal temperatures as high pressure settles in, mostly in the 80s with 70s in higher elevations and 90s near the Rio Grande. Heights and thicknesses build east from the western CONUS late this week into this weekend, with a warming trend ensuing. Large scale subsidence from this ridge will suppress rain chances and keep conditions dry, with temperatures in the 80s and above Thursday through next Monday, and highs rising into the 90s again making an appearance over parts of the Permian Basin, along the Pecos River and over the Upper Trans Pecos, in addition to near the Rio Grande. Even as highs will be above average, they will remain cool enough that lows will still drop into the 50s and 60s for most of the area each night Wednesday night through next Monday night under mostly clear skies and light winds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Models are still up in the air over redevelopment of stratus/fog overnight, but the best candidate still looks to be KMAF, which could see and hour or two of MVFR conditions near sunup. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in light, backing return flow. A few cu will be possible southeast terminals Tuesday afternoon, w/bases 5-6 kft AGL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 88 65 84 / 20 10 10 0 Carlsbad 60 89 62 86 / 0 10 0 0 Dryden 67 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 64 89 63 87 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 59 82 61 79 / 0 10 0 0 Hobbs 59 86 60 84 / 0 10 10 0 Marfa 59 84 58 83 / 20 40 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 63 87 65 84 / 20 10 10 0 Odessa 64 87 65 85 / 10 10 10 0 Wink 64 90 66 89 / 10 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...44