Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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844 FXUS64 KMAF 240756 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 256 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The last little bit of active weather is expected over the next 36 hours before an extended period of quiet weather arrives in the long term forecast period. To start the period, a broad longwave trough is centered over the Upper Midwest. Two shortwaves are embedded in this flow, one over the Ozarks and one over the Dakotas. With time, these features gradually phase and deepen, becoming a cutoff-low over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday. At the same time, an upper-high builds over the Four Corners, amplifying the overall pattern. This morning, a weak, convectively-enhanced disturbance is causing a few thunderstorms over the Presidio Valley. Elsewhere, light winds and clear skies should result in fog across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos around sunrise. Temperatures will be cool and moist, mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Despite the morning fog, temperatures warm up into the upper 80s and low 90s by afternoon. As the previously mentioned trough deepens this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms appear likely across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau with the aid of upslope flow. Elsewhere, without the aid of topography and with no frontal boundary, rain chances appear nill. With the deepening trough transitioning to a cutoff-low to our east, a weak cold front pushes through the area Tuesday night. Unfortunately, with large- scale forcing far removed from the region and dry continental air quickly filtering in, rain chances look unlikely with the front. On the bright side, after a cool morning in the upper 50s and low 60s, temperatures remain cooler during the afternoon, mainly in the middle 80s under sunny skies. This is just a touch below normal for late September. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The jet stream is going to be unusually far removed to the north over the extended forecast leaving a series of stationary highs and lows stretching from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic oceans. The ones to affect us will be a high over the western United States and low pressure sitting over the lower Mississippi River valley. This upper air scenario keeps surface ridging over the Great Plains this week preventing much change in temperatures as highs vary only a few degrees through the weekend. Northerly upper flow situated between the two pressure systems will also advect dry air and prevent any rain chances. Not good if you are looking for rainfall but overall we could do worse than dry with temperatures near climatological norms. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions with light winds from the southeast are currently being reported at all terminals. Widespread light to moderate fog is expected to develop by morning, most likely between the 12-15Z time frame. Uncertainty remains moderately high on the level of visibility reductions from this fog and worse conditions than currently forecast may materialize. At this time, confidence on MVFR or IFR reductions from fog is highest at MAF and HOB. Any fog that develops should quickly lift by late morning and light southeast winds with VFR conditions resume. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 88 63 82 58 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 90 62 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 89 68 90 61 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 90 64 87 59 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 83 61 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 60 84 57 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 84 59 83 53 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 88 64 83 59 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 88 65 84 60 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 91 66 89 61 / 0 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...91