Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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076 FXUS64 KMAF 162337 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VIS and IR Sat show a few high clouds over western portions of the area moving northeast. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear today with surface high pressure over south-central Texas, with a stray shower or storm possible in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains into the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau. High temperatures today continue the above average trend, although only 3 to 6 degrees above average and rising into the 80s and 90s. Tonight, a LLJ will develop and advect in moisture into the area, with 60 degree dew point temperatures extending up along the Pecos River into the SE NM plains, with 50 degree dew point temperatures elsewhere. Lows nearly 10 degrees above average are forecast, 60s with 70s over the eastern Permian Basin, along the Pecos River, and near the Rio Grande. Tomorrow, a trough currently over the west coast is on track in deterministic and ensembles to develop northeast into the northern Rockies. In advance of this trough, thicknesses will increase and result in temperatures warmer than today, 5 to 10 degrees above average in the 90s, 80s over higher elevations, with continued upslope flow ahead of a developing prefrontal trough across the SE NM plains into westernmost portions of SW TX. This synoptic setup yields deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts over the area, which has not been seen here for a while and will help organize and maintain updrafts in any storms that do form. Mid-level lapse rates will be steepest to the northwest of the CWA, so hail risk is not currently expected to be a major concern in any stronger storms that develop. Inverted-v soundings in models associated with dry subcloud layers over SE NM plains into the Upper Trans Pecos indicate damaging outflow winds could be a concern in the strongest storms. SPC has a marginal risk to the north of Lea and Eddy Counties Tuesday, so widespread severe is not anticipated, especially considering stronger height falls and large scale ascent aiding storm development will occur farther north over the Central into Northern Great Plains. Tuesday night, lows will remain above average, and with increased clouds limiting radiational cooling, around 10 to 12 degrees warmer than normal, with 70s over most of the Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau, and Rio Grande, and 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 By the middle of the week, a broad trough remains in place across the western CONUS, with ridging from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, and an upper-low over the Southeast. This pattern finally begins to break down as we head through the remainder of the week into the weekend. This may allow for cooler temperatures and rain chances by the end of the period, but let`s start from the beginning. With the above pattern in place, temperatures continue their above normal trend with most locations in the upper 80s and low 90s on Wednesday. Mild nights remain with upper 60s and low 70s offering limiting relief. A glancing shortwave trough may be enough for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the far northern reaches of the area, though elsewhere continues the dry spell. Thursday is expected to have similar conditions, though temperatures may be a touch warmer and rain is out of the question. Friday into this weekend, a secondary shortwave rounds the larger trough across the West. This feature begins to slowly translate east across the Southwest. This won`t initially aid temperatures, which remain largely the same, but the influx of ascent and moisture should allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Once this trough finally ejects across the Great Plains late this weekend or early next week, a cold front may impinge on the region. This hopefully returns temperatures to closer to normal with perhaps further rain chances. The exact timing and details remain uncertain, but confidence in this overall pattern progression is high. Stay tuned for all the details later this week. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will generally remain southeasterly through the period, with gusts to 20-25kt this evening diminishing by around 01-02Z and returning after 15Z Tuesday. The primary concerns are thunderstorms late in the period, though low potential (10-20%) and uncertainty in timing precludes mention in TAFs at this time. If storms develop, CNM, HOB, and PEQ would have the best chance to see storms after 19Z, with associated impacts expected to be lightning and erratic gusty winds. Will defer to later TAF issuances for potential TS inclusion. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 93 72 95 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 68 93 67 95 / 0 20 20 10 Dryden 70 93 72 96 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 69 94 71 97 / 10 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 65 85 65 87 / 0 20 20 10 Hobbs 65 90 67 94 / 0 10 20 20 Marfa 62 89 65 92 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 69 91 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 70 91 72 94 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 71 96 74 97 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...84