Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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191 FXUS64 KMAF 150852 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 352 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 WV imagery shows the upper trough overriding the ridge into the Central Plains this morning, trailing a line of convection that stayed just north of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Today, as the trough pulls farther away from the region, its influences wanes, and the upper ridge develops back into the area. As such, and increase in thicknesses/temperatures is on tap into next week. Temperatures today should be 2-3 degrees warmer than yesterday`s. Trying to be a bit more conservative on heat advisories, only the higher elevations look to be affected today. Diurnally-driven convection will be possible in the Davis Mountains this afternoon/evening, and a few cells may develop on the tail of the exiting trough, but CAMs are not very enthusiastic about this, and chances will be isolated at best. Deep-layer shear and mid- level lapse rates are sufficient that a cell or two could go severe. In addition, forecast soundings depict high cu bases ( ~ 7-10 kft AGL) and dry subcloud layers for a wind threat. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ develops, inhibiting radiational cooling despite mostly clear skies, yielding overnight minimums ~ 7-9 F above normal. Sunday looks like a repeat of today, only warmer as thicknesses increase under the ever-strengthening ridge. Highs should be around 2-3 F warmer than today, warranting continued heat advisories. Diurnally-driven isolated convection is expected, especially in the Davis Mountains. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Weak ridging holds just to the west of the region and will be pushed to the east slightly. For much of the area, this means less cloud cover and temperatures several degrees higher than yesterday. Most spots will reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. The Big Bend being the hottest spot reaching into the 110s. The inherited Heat Advisory will remain as is given the aforementioned temperatures. Southeast flow continues through this morning and will aid in keeping some low level moisture over western zones. Isolated storms will be possible from near the border to the north into SE NM with some agreement in current hi-res guidance. Any accumulations will be light overall. Temperatures stay above normal tonight with most only settling in the low to mid 70s. Higher elevations cooling into the 60s. The ridge weakens further as an upper low cuts across the Rockies. Better rain chances appear over the Davis Mountains and into SE NM Friday afternoon. Once again, precipitation amounts will be limited as any activity will be isolated in nature. Highs areawide reach into the upper 90s to low 100s. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in modest return flow. A 40+kt LLJ tonight and Saturday night will keep winds elevated. Otherwise, return flow will become gusty during the afternoon. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field during the afternoon, w/bases 7-10 kft AGL. Convection is possible, but chances are too low to warrant a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 98 75 100 74 / 0 10 0 0 Carlsbad 102 71 105 71 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 102 74 105 74 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 96 70 98 71 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 97 69 101 70 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 97 62 100 63 / 20 10 20 10 Midland Intl Airport 97 74 99 74 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 97 75 100 75 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 104 75 107 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44