Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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939 FXUS64 KMAF 171915 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Visible satellite shows numerous patches of cumulus have developed in the moist sector and along the dryline found along the TX/NM state line. A few of these are anticipated to develop into thunderstorms this afternoon, but will be very isolated in nature given subsidence induced capping. Any storms that get going today will have 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE and modest shear (induced by a strong LLJ) to work off of but CAMs indicate they won`t be very numerous or very long lived with an unsurprising local maxima of PoP around the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. However, some storms could be severe with strong winds and hail being the main concerns. Heat is the other main headline today, especially along and southwest of the Pecos River with many spots well into the triple digits. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas this afternoon. A very strong LLJ is contributing to elevated, gusty winds this afternoon that are set to linger through the overnight hours tonight. Moving into Tuesday, the ridge axis that has been nosing out of northern Mexico weakens and backs off a bit as a large tropical disturbance approaches the western Gulf of Mexico. As this feature noses westward tomorrow, the low level thermal ridge is nudged westward as well, helping temperatures stay a few degrees cooler than today. Even still, the Davis Mountains and Big Bend are still Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon, but given the marginal exceedance of criteria and the current advisory in effect for today, will leave the issuance of any necessary headlines for the next update this evening/tonight. Aside from the heat, a stray afternoon storm or two is possible once again off the Davis Mountains. No severe weather is expected with any storms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Models are on track showing the ridge to the east flattening out as a tropical system pushes west from the Gulf of Mexico. At this time it is still unclear whether this system will be just a broad area of low pressure or tighten and intensify into a rotating tropical cyclone. Either way, increased moisture and rain chances are on tap from Tuesday night into Friday night. The position and strength of the ridge will determine just how much moisture is able to advect into the area. Highest rainfall amounts still look to be along and south of the I-10 corridor, but location and extent of highest rainfall amounts is still uncertain at this time. ECMWF and ENS ensemble show lower rainfall amounts with most of the area not seeing above 1.00 inch, compared to the GFS and GEFS ensembles which show amounts closer to 1.00 inch for western and northwestern regions and between 1.00 and 2.00 inches for the eastern Permian Basin into eastern parts of the Stockton Plateau, with 2.00 to 2.50 inches over Terrell County. Given anomalously high PWATs, especially to the east of our CWA, we cannot rule out higher rainfall amounts than currently forecast. However, cooler and drier air in mid-level capping aloft may limit amount of convectively driven heavy rain, especially over the SE NM plains. Increased clouds and rain chances will mean temperatures much cooler than this past weekend and early this week. On Wednesday highs will only reach the upper 80s over easternmost regions, with 90s replacing areas that have seen triple digits the last few days, and triple digits confined to regions right along the Rio Grande in southern Brewster County and southwestern Presidio County. Coolest temperatures are likely on Thursday as the most widespread rain chances and cloud cover will be present, with most locations 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year and not reaching the 90s, including most places along the Rio Grande. Rain chances and low cloud cover will begin to dissipate Friday into Saturday as the tropical disturbance moves off to the west and northwest of the area, with widespread highs in the 80s on Friday, and highs in the mid 80s to 90s for the area on Saturday. With increased sunshine, highs over most of the area will once again reach into the 90s, 80s in the higher elevations, by Sunday into next Monday. Lows throughout the period will be slightly "cooler" than this past weekend after Tuesday night, but remain warmer than average for mid June, with lows only falling into the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Gusty southerly winds persist this afternoon at all terminals. These gusts should largely continue into the evening and overnight hours fueled by the low level jet. Otherwise, conditions look to remain VFR at all sites. A stray thunderstorm is possible near INK/MAF/FST this afternoon, but storm coverage looks very isolated and uncertainty in timing/coverage precludes mention in any TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 75 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 106 72 103 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 101 75 97 73 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 75 99 72 / 20 20 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 97 70 94 67 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 103 70 100 69 / 10 10 0 10 Marfa 100 64 98 62 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 96 72 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 99 75 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 107 77 102 75 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...16