553
FXUS64 KMAF 202322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression "Alberto" will
continue to stream over west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
tonight and Friday. Would have liked to have seen more QPF from
this system, particularly when precipitable water values are
nearly off the chart (over 2"), but drier air advecting in from
the south in the mid levels of the atmosphere has put the kibosh
on heavier amounts. Still, we`ll take whatever we can get.
Scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms,
mainly south of I-10 and also around the Guadalupe/Delaware/Davis
Mountain ranges, are in the forecast for the overnight hours.

The moisture from the aforementioned tropical system will move
west of the region on Friday. There`ll still be fairly high PoPs
over the mountains and adjacent plains where daytime heating will
combine with enough moisture and marginal instability to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
The remainder of the region will be dry. Clouds and moisture will
modulate overnight lows, ranging from the mid 50s at higher
elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande.
High temperatures Friday will remain below normal, ranging from
the upper 70s at higher elevations to the lower 90s along the
Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Following the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto moving off to the
west, a ridge over the northeastern US will develop WSW into New
Mexico. The subtropical ridge will then remain over east-central New
Mexico into next week, with building heights and thicknesses into
Wednesday. Ridging will suppress any widespread convection, with
showers and storms limited to heating of elevated terrain over the
Sacramento Foothills and Davis Mountains.

Highs Saturday will be near to below normal for late June and rise
into the 90s for most locations aside from higher elevations of the
Guadalupes down into the Davis Mountains and Trans Pecos, where
highs will only reach into the 80s. Sunday highs will be a few
degrees above normal for late June and rise into the 90s for most
aside from 80s in the higher elevations again from the Guadalupes
into the Davis Mountains and lower Trans Pecos. A few triple digit
highs are possible along the Rio Grande over Presidio and Brewster
Counties and in the easternmost Permian Basin. Triple digit highs
make a reappearance over the Reeves County plains and western Permian
Basin into the SE NM plains along the Pecos River for Monday, with
highs 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average average and widespread
triple digits Tuesday and Wednesday, aside from higher elevations
and the southeastern Permian Basin. By Thursday, thicknesses will
decrease a bit as a trough from the west flattens the ridge. The
result will be highs slightly cooler than Wednesday, but still
warmer than Monday. Under light southeasterly flow and dew point
temperatures in the 60s, 50s westernmost regions, lows only fall
into the 60s and above for most places each night from Saturday into
the end of the long term. Wednesday night and Thursday night will
see the warmest lows of the long term and 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than average, with most places not falling below the 70s aside from
from the Guadalupes, Marfa Plateau, and lower Trans Pecos where
lows fall into the 60s. Heat advisories may be needed each day from
Monday into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Marginal VFR conditions have arrived at all TAF sites late this
afternoon and evening. Ceilings begin to fall once again later
this evening, quickly becoming MVFR. A few sites may even fall to
IFR but confidence in this occurring is low except at CNM.
Vicinity showers may impact terminals through the overnight and
into the morning but the sporadic nature precludes the inclusion
of -RA. Elevated easterly winds with gusts at times can be
expected for all.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  92  70  95 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  88  68  92 /  80  30   0   0
Dryden                   71  86  70  88 /  80  30  10   0
Fort Stockton            70  88  69  92 /  80  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  80  65  87 /  80  50  10   0
Hobbs                    67  87  66  92 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                    62  84  59  88 /  80  40  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  89  70  92 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  89  70  92 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                     72  92  72  95 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91