Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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129 FXUS64 KMAF 232314 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 614 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 This afternoon, subsidence due to a westward expanding ridge of high pressure is maintaining mostly sunny skies across the region, with only a few diurnal cumulus popping up over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas. Chances are slim to none for any storms to develop this afternoon, with highs progged to top out near normal in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, 100s for portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and upper 80s in the mountains. Similar to last night, lows tonight will be comfortably mild, in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Monday will be similar to today with little change to antecedent conditions, though temperatures will tick above normal once again, with highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s for most, and lower 90s in the mountain areas. Fortunately, locations look to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, though it will still be hot, and those with plans outdoors will need to plan accordingly to protect themselves from heat- related illnesses. The hotter temperatures tomorrow could facilitate some isolated diurnally- driven storms over the Davis Mountains during the afternoon, with gusty winds and lightning strikes the main concerns. Any storms that manage to develop will dissipate quickly after sunset, with another mild night on Monday night as temperatures drop into the 70s. JP && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Upper ridging will largely remain in control of the weather, even as ridging will reorient itself farther west early this week and farther east later this week. Better monsoonal moisture over higher terrain of SE NM and W TX along with heated of elevated terrain is likely to keep daily chances of showers and storms in the forecast each afternoon, although increased strength of ridging in recent runs has reduced shower and storm chances over the Davis Mountains. Increased capping east of higher terrain keeps rain chances there near zero. Ridging will be stronger than in previous runs this week, in line with the European ENS ensemble, and Heat Advisories might be needed, especially Tuesday and again on Friday. Next weekend, the upper ridge develops east. This is in contrast to previous runs from both the ENS as well as GFS and Canadian ensembles that indicated ridging remaining in place and weakening, allowing possibility of a weak cold front moving in from the north. However, ridging developing east allows more moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico to advect in, with slightly "cooler" temperatures by next Sunday as a result: mid to upper 90s over the Permian Basin into the SE NM and Reeves County plains as well as the Stockton Plateau and near the Rio Grande replacing highs in the 100s. More extensive areas of highs only in the 80s over higher elevations and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos are likely as well. Highs by Sunday only a few degrees above normal for early July are forecast after a much warmer Friday and a cooling trend beginning Saturday. Lows throughout the period will continue to only fall into the 70s and above aside from 60s for higher elevations, Marfa Plateau into the lower Trans Pecos, and possibly northern Lea County. Light southeast winds, a mix of clouds each night inhibiting radiational cooling, and dew point temperatures only dropping into the 60s, 50s westernmost regions, all keep lows 5 to 10 degrees above average throughout the long term. As a result of cooler and more humid air later in the long term, rain chances will become more widespread from the northwest Permian Basin into SE NM plains and down over Marfa Plateau. However, at this time rainfall is likely to be spotty and accumulations remaining below a tenth of an inch for most locations, highest amounts to the northwest of the forecast area over the Sacramento Foothills. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will continue the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 99 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 99 75 103 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 72 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 99 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 93 72 96 / 0 10 0 20 Hobbs 68 97 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 61 94 64 97 / 10 20 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 71 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 102 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...84