555
FXUS64 KMAF 170910
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

WV imagery shows a flat upper ridge extending from the Pacific
through northwest Mexico and nosing into West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico this morning.  A trough over the PacNW is forecast to dig
east over the next couple of days, transitioning zonal flow aloft to
more southwesterly.

Today looks like a carbon copy of yesterday, with highs coming in 8-
10 F above normal again.  Temperatures may be a bit cooler than
yesterday, but not enough to feel the difference.  As such, we`ve
dragged yesterday`s heat advisory though this evening, as lows this
morning will be an unseasonably 8-10 F above normal, as well.
Diurnally-driven convection is anticipated in the Davis Mountains
this afternoon/evening.  A weak dryline is forecast to sharpen up
mid-CWA this afternoon, which may also serve as a focus for
convection.  Marginal deep-layer shear will be present along/east of
the dryline, as well as mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km,
so a hail/wind threat will continue.

This activity will diminish this evening w/loss of daytime heating.
A honkin` 55+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and this will inhibit
radiational cooling, resulting in another uncomfortable night of
minimums ~ 7-9 F above normal.

Tuesday, as the PacNW trough pushes into the upper Midwest, this
will suppress the upper ridge to the south.  At the surface, winds
will back a little more to the southeast.  As a result, thicknesses
will begin decreasing, shaving 2-3 F off today`s temperatures and
yielding highs only 5-7 F above normal.  Another heat advisory may
be in order, but not near as extensive as the current one.  A cell
or two of convection may crop up in the Davis Mountains during the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tuesday night and into Wednesday see the beginnings of tropical
moisture pushing in from the east. A ridge to the east will begin to
flatten out and its position and strength will determine just how
much moisture the region ends up with. Medium range guidance remains
somewhat split on this and a stronger ridge pushes more moisture
across the southern half of the CWA rather than over the eastern
half. Given the uncertainty, will leave the NBM solution that puts a
majority of the rain chances along and south of the I-10 corridor.
The most certain variable about this coming week will be
temperatures. The influx of moisture with the nearby trough will
bring temperatures well below normal. Thursday and Friday are likely
to see highs in the 70s and 80s across much of the area. Rain
amounts and locations are still to be determined, so check back in
on future updates.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. KMAF VWP shows a 35 kt
LLJ in full swing this morning, which will keep winds elevated
through noon. Return flow continues this afternoon, gusty at
times, w/forecast soundings developing a fairly widespread cu
field, w/bases ~ 8-12 kft AGL. A 55+kt LLJ overnight will keep
return flow elevated then, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  75  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                106  72 103  72 /   0  10   0  10
Dryden                  101  76  97  73 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton           103  74 100  72 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           97  70  94  67 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                   103  70 100  69 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                   100  63  97  62 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     98  74  96  72 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   99  75  97  72 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                    107  75 103  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44