Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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541 FXUS64 KMAF 201128 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 628 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Much of the area will remain under the influence of high pressure over central Texas today. Clear to partly cloudy skies and southerly winds will send highs into the 90s for all but the higher elevations in the CWA. A deep upper low over the western United States will create enough instability in the western fringes of the area that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from southeastern New Mexico and into the Big Bend which is the only area that could see rainfall today. Things change Saturday as the upper low moves east and closer to New Mexico and West Texas. Instability, moisture, and shear spread east creating the potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening across southeastern New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Forecast soundings show that there is a limiting factor in the form of a stubborn cap that may not erode during the afternoon. Therefore the threat is conditional...storms should struggle to form but any that do could become severe with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. See the SPC SWODY2 for more information. Increasing clouds will keep the temperatures down a few degrees Saturday from today which will be the last above normal temperature day in the forecast thanks to a pattern shift on Sunday. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 In exciting news for the long term forecast period, rain chances are expected throughout much of next week. This pattern will be supported by broad troughing developing across the Great Plains to the Great Lakes with embedded shortwaves repeatedly moving through this. The first of these shortwaves is set to move across the Great Plains into the Midwest late Sunday into Monday. This should push a cold front through the region, this further aides in supporting rainfall potential, while bringing cooler air into the area. Forecast guidance begins to differ with the exact evolution of this weather pattern beyond the initial trough. GFS and GEFS ensembles keep the pattern more progressive with overall cooler temperatures and increased rainfall potential. ECMWF and EPS on the other hand, have a slower pattern with a ridge developing across south Texas. This solution would keep temperatures a bit warmer with less rainfall potential. Regardless of the exact evolution, a much cooler and wetter pattern is expected compared to the last week or so. Each day can expect temperatures near to slightly below normal with periodic rainfall chances, especially during the afternoon hours. Potential rainfall in the forecast always remains a welcomed sight. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions and light occasionally gusty winds are expected the next 24 hours. Isolated TS is possible near CNM that could affect local flying ops if not at the airfield. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 96 72 93 73 / 0 0 0 20 Carlsbad 98 70 93 65 / 20 20 40 20 Dryden 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 96 71 95 71 / 0 0 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 90 66 86 62 / 30 30 40 10 Hobbs 95 68 90 66 / 0 0 30 30 Marfa 93 65 91 64 / 20 10 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 95 72 91 72 / 0 0 10 20 Odessa 95 72 91 73 / 0 0 10 20 Wink 98 74 95 73 / 0 0 20 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...10