601
FXUS64 KMAF 132303
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
603 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Current satellite shows some cumulus and light showers developing
in the Guadalupe and Davis mountains driven by surface heating
and elevation. Not expecting much out of this activity before it
dissipates shortly after sunset. As expected, temperatures are up
into the 90s to low 100s already under mostly clear skies and will
continue to climb a few more degrees before peak heating. Temps
tonight drop into the 70s with some 60s in the mountains before we
see the heat return tomorrow. An upper level ridge over the area
will weaken as an upper low moves in off the West Coast. This
should help shave a degree or two off highs tomorrow as well as
bring a slightly higher chance for showers and thunderstorms from
southeastern New Mexico into the Davis Mountains. A storm or two
could be strong but severe weather is not expected. Lows tomorrow
night will be similar to tonight, dropping into the 70s for most
locations not in the mountains.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The long term stays in a fairly quiet and stagnant pattern as we
move through this weekend and into early next week. A weak trough
lifts away into the north-central Plains on the day Saturday, with
weak ridging re-taking a hold over the region. The ridge never
becomes very strong, helping to limit the heat potential some.
High temperatures on Saturday through Tuesday stay roughly the
same, topping out in the upper 90s for most with 100s found along
and near the Pecos/Rio Grande river valleys. Daily Heat Advisories
are possible across the Big Bend and the more vulnerable higher
elevations, but the Permian Basin looks to avoid headline-worthy
heat. In fact, the forecast keeps KMAF`s highs under 100 through
the long term...so we`ll take it. As for precipitation, the weak
subsidence from the ridging limits storm chances to the classic
spots over the Davis Mountains each afternoon through Tuesday.

As we move into the middle of next week, long-range
models/ensembles are hinting at a tropical disturbance/inverted
trough sneaking into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. If this
occurs, it could bring some welcome moisture and less hot
conditions.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions and light, occasionally gusty southeast winds will
continue this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  99  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 74 100  73 102 /  10  10  20  10
Dryden                   76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73 100  74 101 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           73  94  71  95 /  10  20  30  10
Hobbs                    70  97  70  98 /  10   0  20   0
Marfa                    60  96  63  96 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     74  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75 102  76 103 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10