489
FXUS64 KMAF 241943
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VIS SAT shows mostly clear skies, with some cumulus over the Davis
Mountains and streaming in from the south-southeast over Terrell
County into southeast Permian Basin. Upper ridging will continue to
build today, with light winds aside from some higher gusts over the
Reeves County plains and Lower Trans Pecos into the eastern Stockton
Plateau. Highs will rise above average for late June this afternoon,
into the 90s, 80s in higher elevations, and 100s over easternmost
Permian Basin, western Permian Basin, Reeves County plains and
Stockton Plateau, as well as near the Rio Grande. While warmer than
yesterday, Heat Advisory criteria is not expected to be reached
today. Isolated storm chances as a result of heating of elevated
terrain are possible in the Davis Mountains, otherwise rain chances
are near zero everywhere else. Overnight, light southeast winds and
widespread dew point temperatures in the 60s and above aside from
50s in higher elevations of W TX and Guadalupes will mean lows not
dropping below the 70s for most places, with exception of 60s over
higher elevations and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos.

Tuesday continues the warming trend as ridging continues to amplify.
Widespread triple digit readings over most of the SE NM plains,
Permian Basin, Stockton Plateau and especially the Reeves County
plains (where highs could rise above 105+) are anticipated. Highs
also rise above 105+ along the Rio Grande, with 90s in higher
elevations, over Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, and across
southeast Permian Basin. Heat Advisories might need to be issued,
but will leave that for the next shift. Increased monsoonal moisture
along with heating of elevated terrain for the Sacramento Foothills
and Guadalupe Mountains yield higher rain chances than today for
those regions. Given the dry subcloud layer, lightning and gusty,
erratic winds will be the biggest threats with any stronger storms
that develop. Tuesday night will once again feature a warmer than
average night, with lows again mostly falling into the 70s or
above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Wednesday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over New
Mexico, resulting in highs ~ 7-9 F above normal.  Upslope flow will
give the higher terrain a chance of convection during the afternoon
and overnight hours.  Lightning starts continue to be the only fire
weather concern, each afternoon through the extended.

Thursday, the ridge begins to flatten, courtesy of a broad trough
traversing the US/Canadian border.  While the ridge will center over
West Texas, it`ll be weaker than Wednesday, and decreased
thicknesses will yield highs a degree or so lower than Wednesday`s.
Upslope flow will again favor orographic convection over the higher
terrain out west.

Friday, the ridge shifts to the southeastern CONUS, but not before
trying to rally afternoon highs to what they were Thursday, if not a
bit warmer.

This refocusing of the ridge over the southeastern states will open
a window for cooler temperatures and more widespread convection into
next week.  A general easterly flow will promote convection each day
in upslope flow, but the activity will develop father east each
afternoon.  Attm, best chances look to culminate Sunday, although
POPs remain minimal, as the ridge centers just north of the
ArklaTex.  Thicknesses will be at a nadir for this forecast,
resulting in highs right around normal, if not just a degree or so
above.

All that said, heat advisories may be needed Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR VIS and CIG prevail throughout TAF period. Winds become
intermittently gusty this afternoon and increase in speed this
evening beginning 23Z at FST and by 03Z-04Z at all terminals.
Winds remain gusty until end of the period at MAF, but decrease in
speed by 10Z-11Z Tuesday at other terminals in SE NM plains,
western Permian Basin, and Reeves County Plains into lower Trans
Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               76 102  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 75 104  78 103 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                   75 100  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 103  76 101 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           73  96  76  94 /   0  20  20  40
Hobbs                    72 101  73 101 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    65  97  68  98 /  10  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 105  79 105 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...94