986
FXUS64 KMAF 211906
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
206 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Quiescent conditions are on tap for west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico through Saturday night. We will see some lingering
showers and maybe a thunderstorm across the higher terrain of the
Big Bend and the Delaware/Guadalupe/Sacramento ranges this
evening, with rain chances ending before midnight. Temperatures
overnight will be modulated by clouds and moisture, with lows
ranging from the mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to
the mid 70s along the Rio Grande. Tomorrow begins a stretch of
warmer and drier conditions that will persist well into the
extended. Should see some isolated to scattered diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain again Saturday
afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 80s at higher
elevations to near 103 at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend National
Park. Most areas will be in the lower to mid 90s. Saturday night
will be a repeat of tonight`s conditions, with shower and
thunderstorm activity dying off by mid evening across the southern
Sacramentos. Gusty southeasterly winds this evening will slacken
some overnight before picking up again during the mid morning
hours Saturday. All in all, a perfect late June weekend if you`re
not wanting some badly-needed rain. -bc

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

As remnants of Tropical Depression Alberto continue moving off to
the west over northern MX, ridging over northeastern US build WSW
into the area this weekend. Model solutions diverge next week
regarding upper air pattern. The ENS ensemble depicts ridging over
east-central NM flattening out. This occurs as a trough over Pac
NW digs southeast while a low pressure system moving east over the
Canadian Prairies drags a weak cold front southeast over the
Great Plains, with a weak cold front or dryline moving southeast
over SE NM and W Texas, and northwesterly flow occurring as a low
pressure system develops over the High Plains of the OK and TX
panhandles. The GEFS and GEPS ensembles show subtropical ridging
over east-central NM continuing to hold with little flattening of
the ridge, as the trough over the Pac NW passes well to the north
and any fronts remain closer to the US-Canada border. ENS solution
yields cooler highs in the 90s after Wednesday in Midland-Odessa
with only triple digits over the Reeves County plains, western
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau and near the Rio Grande. GEFS
and GEPS solution maintains highs in triple digits for Midland-
Odessa, most places in the area aside from 90s in the higher
elevations, for Wednesday through Friday next week.

Under ridging and clearing skies, highs Sunday warm back above
normal, in the 90s for most, 80s in higher elevations and Trans
Pecos, and triple digits over Reeves County plains, easternmost
Permian Basin, and along Rio Grande. This warming trend only
continues into Tuesday, with triple digit readings developing
along Pecos River into SE NM plains Monday, and most of the
Permian Basin, SE NM plains, and Reeves County plains into
Stockton Plateau Tuesday, while highs in the 90s are present over
higher elevations and southeastern Permian Basin, and triple
digits also develop in basins of Culberson County and near the Rio
Grande. Wednesday into Friday likely sees "cooler" temperatures
than Tuesday and Wednesday, but still warmer than Monday unless
ENS solution pans out. Lows Sunday night will be warmer than
average under light southeast flow and mix of clouds, 60s for most
with 70s along the Pecos River, near the Rio Grande, and over
northeastern Permian Basin. Lows Monday night through Friday night
5 to 10 degrees warmer than average only fall into 70s and above,
60s for usual cooler spots of higher elevations, Marfa Plateau,
and lower Trans Pecos, as continued southeast flow advects higher
dew point temperatures in the 60s and above during the nighttime
hours for all but westernmost regions. Showers and storms will be
limited to heating of elevated terrain over Sacramento Foothills
and Davis Mountains each afternoon until Wednesday. Additional
rain chances could develop over northernmost Permian Basin and SE
NM plains after next Wednesday, if a weak cold front/dryline does
move southeast through this region next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Conditions are gradually improving from high end MVFR to VFR by
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Gusty southeast
winds will continue through the afternoon hours as well, becoming
somewhat lighter after sunset. There should be enough cirrus near
us to warrant a BKN deck around FL200-250 through the overnight
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  96  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  94  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   71  89  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  93  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  87  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    67  93  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  90  59  92 /  20  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  93  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   70  93  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     72  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...70