844
FXUS64 KMAF 240756
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
256 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The last little bit of active weather is expected over the next
36 hours before an extended period of quiet weather arrives in the
long term forecast period. To start the period, a broad longwave
trough is centered over the Upper Midwest. Two shortwaves are
embedded in this flow, one over the Ozarks and one over the
Dakotas. With time, these features gradually phase and deepen,
becoming a cutoff-low over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by
Wednesday. At the same time, an upper-high builds over the Four
Corners, amplifying the overall pattern.

This morning, a weak, convectively-enhanced disturbance is
causing a few thunderstorms over the Presidio Valley. Elsewhere,
light winds and clear skies should result in fog across the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos around sunrise. Temperatures will be
cool and moist, mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Despite
the morning fog, temperatures warm up into the upper 80s and low
90s by afternoon. As the previously mentioned trough deepens this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms appear likely across
the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau with the aid of upslope
flow. Elsewhere, without the aid of topography and with no frontal
boundary, rain chances appear nill. With the deepening trough
transitioning to a cutoff-low to our east, a weak cold front
pushes through the area Tuesday night. Unfortunately, with large-
scale forcing far removed from the region and dry continental air
quickly filtering in, rain chances look unlikely with the front.
On the bright side, after a cool morning in the upper 50s and low
60s, temperatures remain cooler during the afternoon, mainly in
the middle 80s under sunny skies. This is just a touch below
normal for late September.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The jet stream is going to be unusually far removed to the north
over the extended forecast leaving a series of stationary highs
and lows stretching from the eastern Pacific to the western
Atlantic oceans. The ones to affect us will be a high over the
western United States and low pressure sitting over the lower
Mississippi River valley. This upper air scenario keeps surface
ridging over the Great Plains this week preventing much change in
temperatures as highs vary only a few degrees through the weekend.
Northerly upper flow situated between the two pressure systems
will also advect dry air and prevent any rain chances. Not good if
you are looking for rainfall but overall we could do worse than
dry with temperatures near climatological norms.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions with light winds from the southeast are currently
being reported at all terminals. Widespread light to moderate fog
is expected to develop by morning, most likely between the 12-15Z
time frame. Uncertainty remains moderately high on the level of
visibility reductions from this fog and worse conditions than
currently forecast may materialize. At this time, confidence on
MVFR or IFR reductions from fog is highest at MAF and HOB. Any fog
that develops should quickly lift by late morning and light
southeast winds with VFR conditions resume.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  63  82  58 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 90  62  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   89  68  90  61 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  64  87  59 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           83  61  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    88  60  84  57 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    84  59  83  53 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  64  83  59 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                   88  65  84  60 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                     91  66  89  61 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91