Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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219 FXUS64 KMAF 181953 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 253 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VIS and IR SAT show scattered clouds over central into northern Permian Basin, but otherwise mostly clear skies. A dryline is located along far western portions of SW TX. This surface feature will be the focus of possible convection developing today. Aloft, a trough will continue to be positioned north of the area, providing deep layer shear and instability for storms forming from heating of elevated terrain. Showers and storms may develop near the Davis Mountains as well as the Upper Trans Pecos and northwestern Permian Basin. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, 90s for most places, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digit heat along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. Storms should move northeast into tonight, with southeasterly flow maintaining dew point temperatures in the 60s, 50s westernmost regions, and lows falling into the 60s, 70s and above most of the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. Highs tomorrow will be even warmer tomorrow as a ridge over the southern CONUS amplifies, with mid to upper 90s most places, 80s in highest elevations, and triple digit heat along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. With continued southeasterly surface winds advecting in warm, humid air, lows Thursday night will again be warmer than average and in the 60s and 70s for most places. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The evolution of the potent short wave trough/low over the desert Southwest will drive the long-term portion of this forecast. Friday and Saturday look to be the warmest days under southwesterly flow aloft, with highs in the mid 80s at higher elevations to near 108 at Rio Grande Village and lows generally in the mid 50s to the lower 70s. As the upper short wave trough/low (depending on what cluster and/or model you believe) ejects out over the central and southern Plains Saturday, lee cyclogenesis begins to crank up over southeastern CO. This will in turn drive a dryline/surface trough into the CWA Saturday afternoon. While better upper-level dynamical forcing, shear, and thermodynamics will exist from the Panhandles south to the South Plains, there is a small amount (< 30 percent confidence) of overlap in the thermo/kinematic phase space across the northern third of the CWA to be concerned. In plain English, this means that while there`s a small (< 25 percent) coverage of thunderstorms forecast from southeastern New Mexico across the northern Permian Basin Saturday afternoon and evening (probably overdone somewhat given uncertainty in the placement of the dryline), there`s a fairly high (< 70 percent) conditional threat of wind gusts approaching severe limits with any convection that does become established. There is also the attendant lightning threat to consider. Those with outdoor plans Saturday afternoon and evening are advised to keep abreast of the latest forecasts and trends as this situation unfolds. Stay tuned. The dryline should be overtaken by a Pacific cold front early Sunday morning, followed later Sunday morning by a (likely convectively enhanced) cold front. This secondary front will serve two purposes. First will be knocking temperatures down to around five degrees above normal Sunday. The second will be an increase in precipitation chances north of the cold front as an upslope flow regime becomes established. Clouds, moisture, and a smattering of PoPs early next week will knock temperatures down even further, back to around normal for the third week of September. Not a bad start for the first full week of fall (for those keeping score at home, the real start of autumn will occur on Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 12:43 UTC). -bc && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Showers and storms will be possible from 19Z into 01Z today over terminals near the Davis Mountains and possibly into the Upper Trans Pecos and northwestern Permian Basin. Highest chance will near the Davis Mountains. Main risk in strongest storms is gusty winds and some hail. Winds will decrease by 12Z Wednesday at FST and 06Z-08Z Wednesday at other terminals, but remain out out of the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 68 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 73 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 71 98 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 67 90 69 88 / 0 10 0 10 Hobbs 68 96 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 64 93 63 92 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 72 96 71 93 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 74 96 72 93 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 74 99 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...94