435
FXUS64 KMAF 211732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

We continue to see a few showers across the area tonight as tropical
moisture continues to stream west. Unfortunately, this won`t last
much longer as an intense upper high to our east quickly builds
west. This will shut most of the Permian Basin off for rain this
afternoon other than an isolated shower or two. Scattered storms are
still expected across the higher terrain given continued moist,
upslope flow and daytime heating. While widespread flash flooding is
not expected, brief heavy rain could cause localized ponding in low
areas. With less clouds the temperatures will get a boost, but will
still remain below normal. The drier, hotter trend continues into
Saturday with much of the area likely rain-free with highs back into
the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 153 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The upper ridge repositions itself just west of the area early next
week, but remains in full control of our weather. Other than an
isolated storm in the higher terrain the first half of next week
most locations will remain dry. Temperatures climb back to levels we
saw last week before the tropical moisture arrived. Highs by Monday
should be near or above 100 degrees nearly everywhere. Models
diverge later in the week with one possible solution being a cold
front and "less hot" conditions with a chance of rain. The other
solution would be a continuation of hot and dry. Let`s hope for
the former.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Conditions are gradually improving from high end MVFR to VFR by
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Gusty southeast
winds will continue through the afternoon hours as well, becoming
somewhat lighter after sunset. There should be enough cirrus near
us to warrant a BKN deck around FL200-250 through the overnight
hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  96  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  94  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   70  89  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  93  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  87  69  91 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                    66  93  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  90  59  94 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     69  93  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   70  93  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  96  71 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...70