Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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404 FXUS64 KMAF 211119 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 619 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows a large upper level low over the California/Arizona border. The low will move east today with strongly divergent flow ahead of the low situated over eastern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon and evening. Conditions will be favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop with CAPE values increasing from 24 hours ago and are now above 1500J/Kg. Forecast soundings show moderate lapse rates so the CAPE is tall and skinny, but 0-6km shear still supports a large hail/damaging wind threat. The presence of the low may allow convection to persist well after sunset and possibly even after midnight. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two cooler due to increased cloud cover during the afternoon. Tonight should be the last night for lows in the 70s for most locations before a cold front moves into the area Sunday. The low pressure system over the Rockies moves into the Central Plains pushing a cold front south that reaches the I-20 corridor during the afternoon and quickly pushes into the Big Bend overnight. Additional rainfall will be possible with the frontal passage, heaviest rainfall will be along the front transitioning to a lighter, stratiform rain behind the front. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Surface high pressure builds in Monday behind the front continuing the falling temperature trend as highs hold in the 70s. The departing low in the Great Plains allows an amplified ridge to develop over the western United States. Northerly flow sets up over the Great Plains and models are getting into agreement that a trough will drop south and move across the CWA on Tuesday though there remains some uncertainty in the strength and timing. A stronger trough or even upper low could provide enough lift for scattered showers with moderate rainfall of a quarter of an inch or greater. The transitional seasons historically give us our highest rainfall totals so hopefully we will get some good rainfall even if low temperatures are cooling down and getting close to ending the growing season for eastern New Mexico and West Texas. A reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures is expected Wednesday before the western U.S. ridge migrates east and brings temps back up to near normal and ends rain chances. Hennig && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Current satellite shows CIGs BKN015-025 developing south of MAF. These CIGs should reach MAF/HOB in the next couple of hours and persist for 2-4 hours before dissipating. Other TAF sites should remain VFR. TS will develop after 18Z with some becoming severe. Have placed in the CNM/HOB TAFs where confidence is highest but all of the other TAF locations could also see TS and will closely monitor. TS will end by 06Z. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 74 85 58 / 10 10 70 70 Carlsbad 93 64 84 57 / 40 20 10 20 Dryden 95 74 92 68 / 0 10 20 50 Fort Stockton 95 71 89 61 / 20 20 40 60 Guadalupe Pass 86 61 80 55 / 30 10 10 20 Hobbs 90 66 81 53 / 40 40 30 20 Marfa 92 63 86 58 / 30 30 30 40 Midland Intl Airport 92 72 85 58 / 10 20 60 60 Odessa 92 73 85 59 / 10 20 60 60 Wink 96 72 90 61 / 30 30 30 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10