Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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988 FXUS64 KMAF 170735 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 WV imagery shows a flat upper ridge extending from the Pacific through northwest Mexico and nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. A trough over the PacNW is forecast to dig east over the next couple of days, transitioning zonal flow aloft to more southwesterly. Today looks like a carbon copy of yesterday, with highs coming in 8- 10 F above normal again. Temperatures may be a bit cooler than yesterday, but not enough to feel the difference. As such, we`ve dragged yesterday`s heat advisory though this evening, as lows this morning will be an unseasonably 8-10 F above normal, as well. Diurnally-driven convection is anticipated in the Davis Mountains this afternoon/evening. A weak dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA this afternoon, which may also serve as a focus for convection. Marginal deep-layer shear will be present along/east of the dryline, as well as mid-level lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km, so a hail/wind threat will continue. This activity will diminish this evening w/loss of daytime heating. A honkin` 55+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and this will inhibit radiational cooling, resulting in another uncomfortable night of minimums ~ 7-9 F above normal. Tuesday, as the PacNW trough pushes into the upper Midwest, this will suppress the upper ridge to the south. At the surface, winds will back a little more to the southeast. As a result, thicknesses will begin decreasing, shaving 2-3 F off today`s temperatures and yielding highs only 5-7 F above normal. Another heat advisory may be in order, but not near as extensive as the current one. A cell or two of convection may crop up in the Davis Mountains during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tuesday night and into Wednesday see the beginnings of tropical moisture pushing in from the east. A ridge to the east will begin to flatten out and its position and strength will determine just how much moisture the region ends up with. Medium range guidance remains somewhat split on this and a stronger ridge pushes more moisture across the southern half of the CWA rather than over the eastern half. Given the uncertainty, will leave the NBM solution that puts a majority of the rain chances along and south of the I-10 corridor. The most certain variable about this coming week will be temperatures. The influx of moisture with the nearby trough will bring temperatures well below normal. Thursday and Friday are likely to see highs in the 70s and 80s across much of the area. Rain amounts and locations are still to be determined, so check back in on future updates. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. KMAF VWP shows a 35 kt LLJ in full swing tonight, which will keep winds elevated through the morning. Return flow continues Monday afternoon, gusty at times, w/forecast soundings developing a fairly widespread cu field, w/bases ~ 7-10 kft AGL. A 55+kt LLJ Monday night will keep return flow elevated then, as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 75 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 106 72 103 72 / 0 10 0 10 Dryden 101 76 97 73 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 74 100 72 / 10 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 97 70 94 67 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 103 70 100 69 / 10 10 0 10 Marfa 100 63 97 62 / 10 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 98 74 96 72 / 0 10 0 0 Odessa 99 75 97 72 / 0 10 0 0 Wink 107 75 103 75 / 10 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...44