Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 160432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160431
NDZ000-160600-
Mesoscale Discussion 1286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Areas affected...northern ND
Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...
Valid 160431Z - 160600Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for 60-80 mph wind gusts, isolated hail, and
possibly a tornado will spread quickly eastward into the early
overnight. Downstream watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...A fast-moving MCS with a history of producing
significant severe gusts is moving across northwest ND late this
evening. This MCS remains quite well-organized, with evidence of a
strong rear-inflow jet, and 2-hour pressure rises of greater than 6
mb recently noted over northeast MT. Steep midlevel lapse rates,
relatively rich low-level moisture, and favorable deep-layer shear
will support maintenance of this MCS as it moves across northern ND
into the early overnight hours. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph will
continue to be the primary hazard, though favorable low-level
shear/SRH (as noted on the KMIB VWP) could also support potential
for a line-embedded tornado.
With some severe-wind risk expected to spread east of WW 422,
eventual downstream watch issuance into parts of north-central and
northeast ND is likely.
..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48950316 49030196 49090061 49119857 48469795 47379850
47220158 47250332 48240322 48950316