446
ACUS11 KWNS 242231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242231
MNZ000-NDZ000-250000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and eastern/southeastern North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 242231Z - 250000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
cold front through this evening. Large hail up to 1.75-2.50" in
diameter and damaging wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest thunderstorm
development will continue to occur along a cold front extending
northeast to southwest across portions of far northwestern MN and
eastern ND. A moderate to extreme instability axis extends along and
ahead of this cold front, where temperatures have climbed into the
upper 80s, and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s exist beneath
steep mid-level lapse rates. VAD profiles and objective analysis
across this region indicate sufficient deep layer effective shear
(40-55 kt) is already in place. Storm organization and a few
supercells appear likely along this axis through this evening. Large
hail will initially be possible with the more discrete thunderstorms
that develop, before cell mergers occur with an accompanying
damaging wind threat later this evening as instability wanes. A
severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49289478 49359501 49359514 49069518 48999616 48659642
            47999797 47659849 46969846 46569837 46129801 46249736
            47259559 48009426 48739425 48819460 49289478