944
ACUS11 KWNS 152212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152211
NDZ000-SDZ000-152345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of western and central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152211Z - 152345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple supercells capable of damaging winds and large
hail possible in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed near the surface low
across the MT/ND/SD border and along a warm front extending across
central North Dakota in the last hour. Daytime heating and
increasing low-level moisture has led to dew points in the mid to
upper 60s with MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg across southern/central
North Dakota. Deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts is in place across
western North Dakota, weakening with eastward extent. The 20z
sounding from BIS shows rather marginal deep-layer shear for
organized storms (around 20 kts). The profile also shows ample
instability with 1900 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep lapse rates around 7
C/km throughout the profile. Cells that form along and near the warm
front and in western ND where stronger deep-layer shear resides, may
take on supercellular modes capable of large hail and damaging winds
in the short term. There is considerable uncertainty in the
near-term coverage of the severe threat, given the poor handling of
this scenario in CAMs. Given uncertainty in coverage, a watch is not
likely at this time but this area will be monitored for trends.

..Thornton/Smith.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45790112 45900361 46030391 46160396 46610386 47190311
            47940178 48190120 48300072 48420012 48309968 47849952
            47449942 46809949 45960021 45790112