468
ACUS11 KWNS 182336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182336
KSZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...Southwest into central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...435...

Valid 182336Z - 190100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, 435
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts, hail, and a brief tornado
may persist into mid evening.

DISCUSSION...A frontal band of strong to severe storms from
southwest into central KS has been gradually shifting eastward late
this afternoon into the early evening. While some consolidation of
storms has occurred, multiple embedded cells persist, which will
continue to pose a threat of isolated hail. Transient low-level
mesocyclones continue to be noted on radar across southwest KS, and
some threat for a brief tornado could persist within the
vorticity-rich environment near the front. However, a general
tendency for strengthening and expanding outflows may result in
severe gusts becoming an increasingly prominent hazard across the
region, as noted with a recent 60 kt gust in Russell, KS.

A continued tendency toward backbuilding and redevelopment may
continue through the evening across southwest KS, with a southerly
low-level jet expected to remain focused across that region. Farther
north, there may be some tendency for gradual weakening with time
later this evening from north-central into northeast KS. However,
some severe threat could persist beyond the 01Z expiration time of
WW 434, potentially necessitating local watch extension or new watch
issuance.

..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37120136 38130013 38749942 39899791 39929740 39859715
            39549709 39079736 38009866 37569941 37269986 37030047
            37120136