271
ACUS11 KWNS 201526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201526
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-201730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Areas affected...parts of New England and NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 201526Z - 201730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds from gusts of 50-65
mph, along with isolated hail from 0.75-1.50 inches in diameter will
be possible this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely
for parts of the region, centered from east NY into south ME.

DISCUSSION...Low 70s surface dew points remain pervasive in lower
elevations across central/east NY into ME. Robust diabatic heating
of this moisture plume will result in moderately large buoyancy with
MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg becoming common in the next few hours. A
pair of MCVs embedded within a zonal mid-level flow regime, the lead
one over the Upper St. Lawrence Valley and an upstream one near the
Georgian Bay of Lake Huron, should aid in scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Deep-layer shear
will be weak, especially with south extent, and initial mode will
predominately be pulse. But some congealing and loosely organized
multicell clustering may occur where effective bulk shear holds
around 20 kts, ahead of the lead MCV. The most favored corridor
appears to be centered on the Champlain Valley into south ME. Strong
to isolated severe wind gusts of 50-65 mph producing potentially
scattered tree damage appears to be the primary threat, but isolated
marginally severe hail will be possible as well.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42167637 44947430 45117192 45247061 45476931 44666848
            43307011 42457107 41867462 42167637