651
ACUS11 KWNS 250053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250053
MNZ000-NDZ000-250230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and far east central North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

Valid 250053Z - 250230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threats of large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter
and wind gusts near 60-70 mph continue with thunderstorms along a
cold front this evening.

DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing along and just ahead of a
cold front over northern MN. These thunderstorms are within an
environment where persistent deep layer shear vectors around 50 kt
in magnitude are oriented nearly normal to the cold frontal forcing,
suggesting discrete organized updrafts will continue through this
evening. An instability axis also extends southwest to northeast
along the cold front, with the most recent surface objective
analysis indicating around 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Further south
along the front, several convective initiation attempts have
occurred, but maintenance has been unsuccessful. This may be due to
slightly warmer mid to upper-level temperatures and weaker flow
aloft being present there. However, attempts are still ongoing and
additional thunderstorm development with southward extent cannot be
ruled out. In addition to large hail and damaging winds, the tornado
threat is non-zero based on the latest RAP forecast curved
hodographs through 1 km, although slightly veered surface flow ahead
of the front should limit the overall ambient SRH.

..Barnes.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47299748 47669719 48299613 48869520 48989465 48779464
            48579381 48659322 48639282 48549261 48069314 46869441
            46659669 46649724 47299748