432
ACUS11 KWNS 040156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040156
ARZ000-OKZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...Oklahoma...Western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 040156Z - 040430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
Oklahoma and far western Arkansas late this evening. Isolated large
hail and a few strong wind gusts will become likely. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches will be possible. Weather watch issuance will
become likely, once the timing of cell initiation becomes more
certain.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
place across the much of the southern Plains. Visible satellite
imagery shows a band of agitated cumulus extending from west to east
across south-central Oklahoma. The 00Z sounding at Norman shows a
cap in place near 700 mb with a near surface inversion. However,
short-term model guidance rapidly strengthens a low-level jet across
southeastern Oklahoma. Lift associated with this feature will likely
result in scattered cell initiation between 03z and 04Z. In
addition, forecast soundings have effective shear near 40 knots with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. As cells initiate and mature,
supercells with large hail will become likely. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense
cells. Even though the storms will be elevated, a few strong to
severe wind gusts may also occur.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35489439 35199401 34739398 34379412 34109453 34229579
            34549769 34799868 35149901 35689894 35979848 35979762
            35739580 35489439