808
ACUS11 KWNS 171344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171344
IAZ000-NEZ000-171545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171344Z - 171545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible across eastern Nebraska
over the next hour or two. Limited severe coverage will likely
preclude the need for a watch, but convective trends will be
monitored closely.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown an increase in
thunderstorms along a north-south line from the OFK vicinity
southward to around 20 miles southeast of HSI. Surface analysis
reveals a warm front across southern NE, with this new development
likely a result of warm-air advection across this frontal zone.
Moderate elevated buoyancy is in place ahead of this line, with
mesoanalysis estimation MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg. This elevated
buoyancy will likely persist throughout the remainder of the
morning, but the low-level jet is expected to gradually weaken. As a
result, the general expectation is that this line will gradually
diminish in intensity over the next few hours. Even so, sporadic
intensification of the updrafts within this line is possible, with
large hail as the primary severe risk. A strong gust or two is also
possible given the modest low-level stability. Given the anticipated
weakening of these storms, a watch is not currently expected, but
convective trends will still be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40069782 40519818 41629802 42349757 42309629 41239602
            40609608 40149668 40069782