Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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959 FXUS64 KMEG 200338 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1038 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Calm weather is expected to continue today through Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows are expected to be in the low 60s. Areas of patchy fog are possible each morning through Sunday, especially in low lying areas and near bodies of water. The next chance for precipitation is next Monday with highs potentially dropping into the 70s early next week alongside a frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The forecast for this period has not changed much from what has been advertised the past few days. An upper level trough continues to spin away over the upper Midwest today with a much weaker trough now moving to the east over the Atlantic coastline. Between these two features is a surface high that will persist through Sunday. By this point a new upper trough will exit the Rockies and travel east across the CONUS and will determine our weather after Sunday. As a consequence of being locked underneath this high pressure through the end this upcoming weekend, no significant changes to the present forecast are anticipated. Expect highs to be in 80s/90s with lows in the low 60s with some areas of patchy fog each morning. No precipitation is forecast until Monday. The next system, and chances for precipitation, are still being deciphered by medium and long range guidance. Ensemble spread increases with respect to the forward speed and strength of upper lo as it propagates east across the CONUS. Precipitation and temperature drops are entirely possible with any surface fronts associated with this system. However, the aforementioned increase in spread lowers confidence in the exact magnitude of any impacts. Current QPF sits in the .05" - .15" range and could change in the coming days. Regardless, expect a temperature drop and a chance for showers early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure over the region will result in VFR conditions at all TAF sites with light south to southwest winds. Patchy fog is possible. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...JDS