210
FXUS64 KMEG 242319
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Hot temperatures and high humidity will occur the Mid-South for
much of the upcoming week. A brief break will occur Wednesday
into Thursday as a cold front sinks into the region. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will occur. A few storms could be
severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Drier air has filtered into much of the Mid-South this afternoon.
Dewpoints have dropped into the mid to upper 60s in many locations
allowing for heat indices to drop below 100 degrees. As a result,
the Heat Advisory has been canceled for Northeast Arkansas and for
Shelby County, Tennessee. However, dewpoints remain in the lower
to mid 70s across the Arkansas and Mississippi Delta thus the Heat
Advisory will continue through the night.

Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift east by
Tuesday. This will allow winds to turn back to the southwest which
will bring the higher dewpoints back into the entire Mid-South.
With high temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid
70s, heat index values will rise to above 105 degrees. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for the entire Mid-South. The Arkansas
and Mississippi Delta will need to be monitored for a potential
upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning as heat indices could reach
up to 110 degrees.

A cold front will begin sinking out of the Midwest Tuesday Night.
Some of the models continue to show a potential dying MCS moving
into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest
Tennessee Wednesday morning. Redevelopment will also be possible
during the afternoon along and ahead of the front. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms with damaging winds and large hail
being the main threats.

Drier air will then once again filter into the Mid-South behind
the front as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley.
The break from the heat and humidity will be short-lived as the
surface high moves east by Friday and an upper ridge strengthens
over the Mid-South. Expect hot and humid conditions to occur. Rain
chances have decreased as models have slowed the progression of
the next expected front(which was to occur over the weekend) due
to the strength of the ridge. Heat Advisories will likely be
needed over the weekend.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A couple of thunderstorms have developed over portions of north
Mississippi earlier this afternoon but should die out early this
evening. VFR conditions will continue for much of the forecast
period. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon but are not expected to affect any of the TAF sites.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026-027-035-
     036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ028.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-010>013-
     020>024.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-
     014>017.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM
AVIATION...ARS