Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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999 FXUS64 KMEG 222342 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Hot conditions will persist into the beginning of the week as an upper level ridge remains parked over Texas. The best chance of rain will occur on Wednesday with thunderstorms likely by the afternoon. Temperatures for the end of the week will be slightly cooler, in the low 90s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Hot conditions continue to dominate the Mid-South with 230PM temperatures in the low to mid 90s areawide. The upper level ridge responsible for bringing heat to the region will retrograde west tomorrow as a dissipating cold front impacts the region. Little to no relief will be realized as this boundary treks across the Mid- South. Instead, more efficient moisture return will bring dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. This, combined with temperatures in the 90s, will result in several areas reaching heat index values of 105 F. As such, a Heat Advisory will go into effect at noon for areas along and west of the Mississippi River. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas of the Mid-South in a Marginal Risk for severe storms tomorrow. Severe weather parameters at this time look lack luster with mid level lapse rates around 5.5 C/km and bulk shear near 20 kts. However, instability should be plentiful in the afternoon. If a storm does get going, the greatest threat would be gusty winds. Additional heat headlines will be likely Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge remains centered over Texas. There exists a low (10-20 percent) potential for shower and thunderstorm development Monday and Tuesday. Any precipitation that does occur will likely be isolated in nature. Instead, greater rain chances exist on Wednesday as a shortwave trough treks across the region. Thunderstorm development will be likely in the afternoon with upscale storm growth limited by low shear values. Current thinking is that these storms will be of the pop-up pulse variety. Slightly cooler temperatures will be in place for the end of the week with highs in the low 90s. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the period. Some pre-frontal -SHRAs may affect JBR tomorrow morning. Model guidance is hinting at isolated to scattered -SHRAs or -TSRAs near MEM near the end of the period. Winds will gradually shift from SW to W through the period. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115. MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001-007-008- 010>012-020. TN...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001-002-019- 048-049-088. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...ANS