905
FXUS64 KMEG 212008
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast through much
of the weekend, with highs well into the 90s through at least
next Tuesday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed as early as
Sunday. Conditions will remain dry until Sunday, with some
isolated showers Sunday to Tuesday and higher PoPs returning
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

We officially reached summer yesterday and we sure are feeling it
today. Scattered clouds are apparent on the latest visible
satellite imagery with latest obs showing temps generally at to
just above 90 degrees across the Mid-South. Unfortunately little
relief from this heat is expected into early next week and will
likely only get worse with the region remaining under the
influence of high pressure. Surface winds will begin to become
generally southerly overnight, allowing some additional moisture
to enter the area and leading to dew point temps slow climbing
each day. By Sunday, highs will reach the mid 90s across much of
the Mid-South with some locations across northern Mississippi
peaking into the upper 90s. Couple this with dew point
temperatures in the 70s and we will see many locations reach Heat
Index values near the 105 mark. If this pans out, a Heat Advisory
could be needed for at least some portions of the Mid-South.
Upper- level pattern will begin to shift on Sunday, with a
building ridge across the Rocky Mountains. While this will not
bring immediate relief to the area, it will allow a weak shortwave
to move through Sunday Night. There will be some instability in
the evening, but shear appears to be pretty weak and less than
ideal mid-level lapse rates per the latest forecast soundings. If
this boundary can get enough lift, could see some thunderstorms
in the mix with a strong storm or two, but it looks pretty
unimpressive as CAMs stand now and storms will likely struggle to
sustain themselves given the environment.

Will continue to carry isolated PoPs Monday and Tuesday, but the
biggest talking point both days will be the continued heat. Many
locations will likely reach the mid to upper 90s both days, with
dew point temps remaining in the 70s. If a Heat Advisory is not
needed Sunday, things do look more probable for Monday/Tuesday if
things continue to look the way they do now.

We appear to finally break out of the heat at least for a little
while on Wednesday as upper-level troughing builds over the
eastern half of the U.S and a frontal boundary moves through
Wednesday Evening. Temperatures will fall back to near normal on
Wednesday, likely remaining there through the beginning of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR CIGs with light and variable winds will persist through late
evening. Overnight, expect winds to veer southeast. Otherwise, no
aviation impacts anticipated.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS