507
FXUS64 KMEG 141114
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
614 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mostly dry and progressively hotter conditions are expected each
day until Sunday. Rain chances return with slightly less hot
conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Current GOES nighttime satellite depicts a decaying MCS dropping
almost due south from the Middle Mississippi River Valley. Radar
trends actually suggest a mesoscale boundary across southeastern
Missouri that is halting the precip in its tracks as it tries to
make southeastward progress. CAMs do not have a good handle on
this rain shield`s development over the next few hours, but a low
confidence 15% PoP was added along the northwestern edge of the
CWA for the near term as this MCS continues gradually heading
our way. Residual moisture this afternoon may lead to some
localized diurnally driven convection along the AR/MO and KY/TN
state lines, but confidence in this is again very low.

Confidence is much higher for the heat tomorrow and Sunday. A
stout midlevel ridge will build over the Mid-South starting
tomorrow morning, trapping an unseasonably hot airmass in place
for the remainder of the weekend. For context, NAEFS mean
temperatures from the surface to 500 mb exceed the 90th
percentile of climatology on Sunday. Afternoon highs will be in
the mid 90s on Saturday, climbing to the upper 90s on Sunday. This
isn`t necessarily record territory, but it is still a full 6-7
degrees above normal for mid June. Heat indices are expected to
reach triple digits this weekend, especially Sunday. The potential
for heat headlines is still low but will need to be monitored
closely if the airmass overperforms and nudges temperatures above
their forecasted values.

The midlevel ridge looks to quickly shift to the east over the
Mid-Atlantic on Monday. As it traverses the TN Valley and further
amplifies while doing so, southerly flow will quickly set in on
the west edge of the strong ridge. This will allow Gulf Coast
moisture to surge up the Lower MS River Valley and support rain
chances around 20-30% on Monday afternoon. Guidance continues to
trend drier for the Mid-South next week, but given the higher
moisture content aided by return flow, diurnally driven isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out any afternoon. We`ll see a
gradual warming trend from the low 90s to the mid 90s throughout
the course of the week.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mainly VFR. Light south winds shifting to northwest then northeast
as a back door weak cold front moves through. There is an outside
chance of a TSRA at JBR this afternoon. Light fog is possible at
MKL and TUP late tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM