600
FXUS64 KMEG 250430
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Quick update. Temperatures remain quite warm across the Mid-South
at this hour with readings in the low to mid 80s. The heat index
remains stifling at this hour with readings still as high as 95F
at few sites. A heat advisory remains in effect through tomorrow
evening for much of northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

A quasi-stationary front, that is currently analyzed nearly
parallel to and west of the Mississippi River, will nudge back
east by tomorrow afternoon. The combination of temperatures
nearing 100F and high dewpoints will result in heat indices
climbing above 105F areawide. There is concern that moisture will
pool near the Mississippi River and result in dangerous heat
indices near 115F. Due to the uncertainty of the front location
over the next 12 hours or so, decided to hold off on an excessive
heat warning for now.

The current forecast is on track with no big changes needed at
this time.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Hot temperatures and high humidity will occur the Mid-South for
much of the upcoming week. A brief break will occur Wednesday
into Thursday as a cold front sinks into the region. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will occur. A few storms could be
severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Drier air has filtered into much of the Mid-South this afternoon.
Dewpoints have dropped into the mid to upper 60s in many locations
allowing for heat indices to drop below 100 degrees. As a result,
the Heat Advisory has been canceled for Northeast Arkansas and for
Shelby County, Tennessee. However, dewpoints remain in the lower
to mid 70s across the Arkansas and Mississippi Delta thus the Heat
Advisory will continue through the night.

Surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift east by
Tuesday. This will allow winds to turn back to the southwest which
will bring the higher dewpoints back into the entire Mid-South.
With high temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid
70s, heat index values will rise to above 105 degrees. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for the entire Mid-South. The Arkansas
and Mississippi Delta will need to be monitored for a potential
upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning as heat indices could reach
up to 110 degrees.

A cold front will begin sinking out of the Midwest Tuesday Night.
Some of the models continue to show a potential dying MCS moving
into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest
Tennessee Wednesday morning. Redevelopment will also be possible
during the afternoon along and ahead of the front. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms with damaging winds and large hail
being the main threats.

Drier air will then once again filter into the Mid-South behind
the front as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley.
The break from the heat and humidity will be short-lived as the
surface high moves east by Friday and an upper ridge strengthens
over the Mid-South. Expect hot and humid conditions to occur. Rain
chances have decreased as models have slowed the progression of
the next expected front(which was to occur over the weekend) due
to the strength of the ridge. Heat Advisories will likely be
needed over the weekend.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period. A few
thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon, mainly over
portions of north Mississippi. Coverage should be rather limited
so not expecting any thunderstorms at any of the TAF sites. Winds
will be mainly from the south at around 5 knots.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026-027-035-
     036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ028.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-007-008-010>013-
     020>024.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ002>006-009-
     014>017.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-089>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM
AVIATION...ARS