Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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854 FXUS64 KMEG 260844 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 344 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region today with a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the mix. By tomorrow, slightly cooler temperatures and dry conditions return before warming back up Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A weak frontal boundary is currently pushing through the area, leading to early morning showers and thunderstorms for locations generally north of I-40. Have already had a few storms take advantage of the current environment, with a couple of strong storms with a lot of lightning and some gusty winds. Surface boundary has pushed out ahead of the convection at the current time, so do expect coverage to stall and diminish a bit over the next few hours. Looking to our northwest across Missouri, yet another MCS is trekking our direction and will likely move into a primed environment. Some strong to severe thunderstorms development could occur based on latest model soundings, with most showing this line entering the far NW portions of the area by late morning and continue into the afternoon. CAMs do seem to be having some issues resolving the eastward extent of the MCS, so will need to keep an eye on things as it moves towards the area to see its eventual orientation. Nonetheless, damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, but some hail cannot necessarily be ruled out either. PWAT values remain a bit high, so some isolated flooding in flood prone areas during heavy downpours or if storms are slow moving could occur. Could see some post frontal activity behind the initial wave, but everything should exit the area by the late evening. Upper-level ridge will begin to build into the region into Thursday, aiding in drying out the area through at least Friday. Luckily, N/NE flow on Thursday will aid in knocking our temps back a few degrees, with highs likely remaining in the 80s to near 90. This will be short lived as surface winds will quickly return to southerly on Friday, leading to temps climbing back into the 90s and dew point temps into the mid 70s. Will have to keep an eye on the MS Delta for heat headlines Friday, but widespread heat headlines look increasingly likely for Saturday. Another weak frontal boundary will move through late Saturday into Sunday, bringing along some showers and thunderstorms and knocking our temps back a few degrees once again. As is our summertime song and dance though, this will be short-lived as temps soar by the middle of next week as a potent surface high pressure looks increasingly likely. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will remain across the airspace through the morning hours ahead of TSRA movement. An MCS will begin moving across the Mid-South tomorrow morning with the movement of a cold front. TEMPOs were added tomorrow afternoon to account for TSRA as this front pushes across each terminal. Conditions are also expected to lower to MVFR as TSRA impacts TAF sites. VCSH/VCTS looks to clear the airspace shortly after sunset tomorrow as winds begin to shift northwest and skies begin to clear behind the cold front. Fog is expected to form at TUP under mostly clear skies and light winds tomorrow evening. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...AEH