Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
247 FXUS64 KMEG 171946 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Calm and warmer weather is expected throughout the week. Highs are forecast to reach into the middle to upper 80s with lows around 60. No precipitation chances are expected until next week. Confidence is increasing for early morning fog for tonight and tomorrow night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A unique upper pattern currently presents itself across the CONUS with a deep trough over the mountain west and a low-latitude Rex Block over the eastern CONUS. The blocking residing over Appalachia will prevent any energy associated with the western trough from moving longitudinally over the next several days. Only until the weak upper low creating this block fills in will we have the chance to regain a more progressive upper level pattern. In the meantime, expect to see a somewhat persistent forecast with drier and warmer conditions in general. Today`s weather is currently proceeding according to the persistent warming and drying pattern explained above. Highs have reached into the middle to upper 80s today across the entire region thanks to sunny skies. Throughout the week similar conditions are expected with lows reaching into the low 60s and highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation is expected. Eventually the eastern blocking will be absorbed by the background westerlies and precipitation will return to the forecast. Current ensembles (GEFS/ECMWF) show this breakdown occurring over the weekend with some PoPs appearing by Monday, but this is too far out to provide any more details. The most notable headline over the next couple of days is fog. Francine drenched the region with over 3" of rain, allowing for very high soil moisture. With clear skies, radiative cooling will likely condense some of this moisture as it evaporates and pools near the surface overnight. Therefore, confidence is relatively high in fog tonight and tomorrow night across much of the region. However, the rest of the week still offers chances at seeing fog, but confidence is not currently high enough to mention at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Patchy fog is possible at MKL and JBR late tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds expected through the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...CJC