298
FXUS64 KMEG 161738
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Air temperatures are running about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than at
this time yesterday. Most locations are in the low to mid 90s.
Dewpoint temperatures vary as much as 5F across the region. The
majority of locations are in the lower 70s, but several airports
are reporting mid to upper 70s this past hour. The combination of
warmer air temperatures and higher dewpoints has pushed heat
indices into the triple digits nearly areawide. A materializing cu
field, as seen from GOES Visible Satellite, may limit some short
term warming over the next hour or so. However, as it mixes out by
late afternoon, there is the potential for more locations to hit
the 105F mark for an hour or so. The potential is there, but
confidence remains too low to issue an areawide advisory. Will
issue a heat advisory for areas along and north of a line from
Jonesboro, AR to Brownsville, TN to Savannah, TN line.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Heat indices will reach triple digits in most areas today with a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms. More widespread rain will
move in tomorrow and Tuesday along with a brief break from the
heat. Mostly dry conditions and a warming trend return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The latest 500 mb analysis depicts a broad 590 dam ridge centered
over Middle Tennessee. As a result, this afternoon`s temperatures
will climb into the upper 90s for the first time since September.
Accompanying heat indices are expected to break triple digits
again today, but confidence in 105+ HI values was too low to
issue any heat headlines with this morning`s forecast package,
especially with the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. A 15-20% PoP was added for areas
mostly east of the Mississippi River this afternoon given the
latest CAMs` fairly good agreement on a broad swath of isolated
convection.

As the midlevel ridge drifts over to the Carolinas tomorrow
afternoon, a large plume of Gulf moisture will be advected up the
MS Delta as southerly flow sets in. This will support more
widespread rain potential around 50-60% in the afternoon, coupled
with much thicker cloud cover. These conditions should help keep
temperatures much cooler through Tuesday, at least relative to
this weekend. NBM probabilities of temperatures above 90 degrees
on Tuesday are actually fairly low (less than 40%) almost
everywhere.

By midweek, an anomalously strong upper level ridge starts to
build in over the ArkLaTex as the midlevel ridge further amplifies
on the East Coast. The NAEFS mean 200 mb heights are in the very
upper echelon of climatology starting Wednesday and lasting all
the way through next weekend across the entire ArkLaTex region.
The combination of being sandwiched these two strong ridges
spells out a warming trend for the Mid-South late next week.
Expect highs to climb back into the mid 90s by Thursday, further
warming to the upper 90s by next weekend. The long-range pattern
looks more reminiscent of a typical summertime setup; diurnally
driven convection will be possible each day, though overall
coverage should remain quite low.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through
the TAF period, instances of reduced VIS and CIGS may be possible
with SHRA/TSRA. Greater precipitation chances, including the
possibility for TSRA, look to affect the Mid-South starting
tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in TSRA timing and coverage
remains too low for a prevailing group at this time.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048-050>055-091-092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JPR