897
FXUS64 KMEG 241731
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front
slowly moves across the region. A few thunderstorms may be strong to
severe, along the Tennessee River Valley with gusty winds being the
primary threat. An upper level disturbance will reside over the
region for the next several days resulting in below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation chances through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Latest surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary just to
the northwest of the Missouri Bootheel. This boundary combined with
around 40kts of effective shear, has been able to fire up some
convection depicted on KNQA at this hour. A weak bit of CIN has been
able to allow these storms to quickly collapse on themselves in
early stages. Prior to collapse of these storms, gusty winds (50 mph
or less) remain the primary threat.

As daytime heating commences, surface based instability will rise,
lift provided from the aforementioned front slowly pushing
southeast; a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. Mid-level
lapse rates will be the limiting factor in any deep convection
development today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
today with primary threats being damaging winds and hail. Areas
along the Tennessee River Valley have the highest chance of seeing a
strong to severe storm this afternoon into evening hours.

A deep trough from the Northern Plains will phase with the slow
moving front expected to cross the region today. The result of this
phase, will leave a cutoff low over the Middle Mississippi Valley for a
large portion of the forecast period. This will result in below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances.

Awaiting a pattern change will come from the development and track
of Tropical Cyclone 9 anticipated to make landfall along the Florida
Panhandle later this week. The current precipitation forecast from
WPC for the next 7 days is 2-3" along the Tennessee River Valley and
less further west. This forecast will likely change depending on the
track of the tropical system and the potential interaction with the
presence of the cut off low.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Current satellite imagery shows a trough digging through the
region this morning with associated clouds. So far, only
intermittent drops to MVFR have been seen across E AR. Have
included FEW025 to account for any drops into MVFR at JBR/MEM
through 00z.

Otherwise, the most notable impact through this afternoon will be
TS in the vicinity of MKL/TUP. A cold front is currently in E AR
and will continue eastward throughout the period with storms
forming along it. Convection is expected to persist in the region
through at least 22z up until 00z this evening.

Overnight, clouds should generally lower in coverage before post-
frontal CIGs at 10 kft overspread the region. Some visibility
drops are possible in MKL, so kept 4 SM for now with changes being
possible in subsequent TAFs. Otherwise, VFR is likely to prevail
for much of the remainder of the period at all sites with a
clearing trend through tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB