350
FXUS64 KMEG 281735
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Temperatures across the Mid-South have warmed into the low to mid
80s with dewpoint values ranging from the low to mid 70s. This is
resulting in heat index values in the low to mid 90s.
Temperatures are still expected to warm into the low 90s today
which should yield heat index values near 100 degrees across most
of the region. Some areas of the Mississippi Delta will see heat
index values near or at 105 degrees later today where a heat
advisory remains in effect until 8pm CDT. The current forecast
appears to be on track with no changes planned or needed.

JPR

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot temperatures return today and will last through Saturday as a
strong upper level ridge dominates weather patterns. Rain chances
increase late Saturday before another hot and dry spell resumes
on Monday, lasting through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot and muggy conditions will resume today as a 592 dam ridge
centers over the ArkLaTex, allowing for strong moisture return
into the Mid-South. By midday, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are
anticipated. This, combined with afternoon highs in the low and
mid 90s, will result in heat index values at and above 105F for
portions of the Mississippi Delta. As such, a Heat Advisory will
go into effect at 10AM for this area. Additional heat headlines
are likely on Saturday as the aforementioned ridge strengthens to
around 597 dam. Most, if not all, of the Mid-South will likely
require a Heat Advisory with a few areas potentially hitting
Excessive Heat Warning criteria.

Elsewhere in CONUS on Saturday, a cold front will eject southeast
across the Midwest. By midday, a Mesoscale Convective System is
anticipated to form over central Missouri and trek into the Mid-
South. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase locally in
the evening hours, with a low end severe weather threat emerging
for areas of northeast Arkansas into west Tennessee. Damaging
winds will be the primary concern through sunset. Redevelopment
of showers and storms is likely by midday Sunday, which should
curb the need for additional heat headlines.

Dry and hot conditions will return on Monday and last through
midweek. Unfortunately, this means heat headlines will likely be
needed again starting Tuesday. The next best chance of rain looks
to be on the 4th, so stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions and relatively light winds will persist through
most of the TAF period. Probabilistic guidance suggest the
potential for a temporary low stratus deck around sunrise at TUP.
Confidence is too low to include at this time.

ACH/CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CJC/ACH