561
FXUS64 KMEG 221740
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Mainly dry and hot conditions will continue today as an upper
level high pressure system remains overhead. An upper level
disturbance will move into the region late tonight and linger
over the region through late week. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible Monday night. Cloudy conditions, cooler
than normal temperatures, and decent chances for rain will occur
Wednesday through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The latest GOES East lower level water vapor loop reveals a
closed low over the Rockies with a dampening ridge over the
southern CONUS. A couple of MCSs are riding along the ridge
near the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. This upper low will eject
a shortwave trough late tonight and push into the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday. Models continue to advertise a
positive to neutrally-tilted trough moving through the Mid-South
Monday afternoon into Tuesday. 30 to 40 meter height falls will
occur along and north of I-40 with scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms possible. Bulk shear will remain moderate with up to
35 knots and instability will remain on the weaker side with 1000
J/kg or less. The main threat will be damaging winds and large
hail. If storms form earlier in the day on Monday, instability
will likely be higher and the threat of strong to severe
thunderstorms could increase.

A weak cold front will push into the Mid-South on Tuesday with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the
day. Dry conditions may move into the region on Wednesday, but
uncertainty remains high due to a potential tropical cyclone
forming in the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday. The remnants of this
post tropical system could interact with a cutoff low over the
Mississippi Valley by late week bringing a heavy rainfall threat
to the region.

Decided to stick close to the ECMWF in the mid range forecast,
which suggests that an upper low will remain over the Lower
Mississippi Valley through the end of the week with a tropical
system pushing into the eastern GOM. This solution translates to
cooler than normal temperatures and a decent chance of showers in
the forecast each day through next weekend. The potential tropical
system`s intensity and track will be crucial to determining the
late week forecast. Stay tuned.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across much of the airspace. JBR is
expected to lower to MVFR around sunrise tomorrow with the
movement of a cold front. VCTS with a PROB30 for -TSRA looks to
impact JBR late this evening through around 08Z. Guidance is in
decent disagreement on timing and coverage of convection with the
cold frontal movement tomorrow. Confidence was too low to include
in TAF at other terminals, though potential exists for convection
at MKL/MEM/JBR tomorrow afternoon, though best coverage looks to
occur after the TAF period. South/southwest winds sub 8 kts will
remain across all sites.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH