Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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156 FXUS62 KMFL 191852 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Ridging remains in place over the southeastern US, with a generally easterly flow across South Florida today. Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS flights show increasing moisture at the lower levels this morning, topped by a deep layer of dry air aloft. This influx of moisture near the surface has capitalized on frictional convergence near the East Coast and the passage of a subtle upper level disturbance resulting in the development of isolated showers across the region early this morning. Activity will continue through the afternoon, with coverage becoming more scattered as the dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea breeze further inland. As such, kept 40-50% PoPs progressing from the interior towards the Gulf coast this afternoon. A similar weather pattern continues on Thursday but with enhanced moisture advection as a surface trough approaches from the western Atlantic. This could result in slightly higher POPs and more widespread coverage across the area. Temperatures across the East Coast today will benefit from the breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s. Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the day, with highs in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The synoptic pattern at the start of the extended period will be characterized by mid-lvl ridging centered over the southeastern CONUS and troughing over the western US. This pattern will essentially reverse itself Sunday into early next week, as the ridge retrogrades into the SW US and longwave troughing amplifies over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure near Bermuda will remain the main feature of interest Friday through the weekend (although a weak tropical wave will pass to our north on Friday with little impacts expected) maintaining moderate E-SE low-lvl flow over SFL. Towards the end of the extended period, the aforementioned high will shift eastward resulting in sea- breeze driven circulations prevailing by early next week. In terms of sensible weather, shower/storm evolution will largely follow those of a typical easterly regime Friday-Sunday with the best rain chances initially over the Atlantic waters/east coast in the morning and early afternoon, with the risk of showers and storms then increasing on the west coast later in the afternoon as the Gulf breeze moves inland. Overall rain chances look to be in the high-end Chc to low-end likely (i.e. 45-60%) range through this period as near to just above climo deep-layer moisture (PWATs 1.9-2.1 inches) will partially offset synoptic subsidence from the ridge. As the large-scale easterly flow weakens early next week, the diurnal evolution of daily storms may shift to become more Interior-focused but confidence remains low. Temperatures will likely run just above average through the period (highs mostly in the low to mid 90s), with daily heat indices peaking around 103-107 degrees (with the highest values west and Interior) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Mostly VFR conditions through the period as gusty easterly flow prevails. Stray SHRA/TSRA could result in brief periods of MVFR conditions along East Coast terminals in the early afternoon; did not include TEMPOs in this forecast cycle due to low confidence of timing and duration. SHRA/TSRA moves inland after 20Z with the potential for sub-VFR conditions shifting westward towards KAPF. Chances for rain diminish overnight, but VCSH could be possible again tomorrow, starting early along the East Coast and then progressing westward towards KAPF in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Breezy and gusty easterly wind flow across the local waters today along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf. A slight decrease in the E-SE winds will lead to lower seas for the end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Robust easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 89 79 90 / 30 50 20 50 West Kendall 77 90 77 91 / 30 50 20 50 Opa-Locka 78 90 79 91 / 30 50 20 50 Homestead 78 88 79 90 / 30 50 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 79 87 79 88 / 30 50 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 87 79 89 / 30 50 20 50 Pembroke Pines 79 91 79 92 / 30 50 10 50 West Palm Beach 77 87 76 90 / 30 50 10 50 Boca Raton 78 88 78 90 / 30 50 20 50 Naples 76 93 76 93 / 10 50 20 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...ATV