918
FXUS62 KMFL 200558
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
158 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Ridging remains in place over the southeastern US, with a generally
easterly flow across South Florida today. Sounding date from the 12Z
MFL launch and ACARS flights show increasing moisture at the lower
levels this morning, topped by a deep layer of dry air aloft. This
influx of moisture near the surface has capitalized on frictional
convergence near the East Coast and the passage of a subtle upper
level disturbance resulting in the development of isolated showers
across the region early this morning. Activity will continue through
the afternoon, with coverage becoming more scattered as the
dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea breeze further
inland. As such, kept 40-50% PoPs progressing from the interior
towards the Gulf coast this afternoon.

A similar weather pattern continues on Thursday but with enhanced
moisture advection as a surface trough approaches from the western
Atlantic. This could result in slightly higher POPs and more
widespread coverage across the area.

Temperatures across the East Coast today will benefit from the
breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s.
Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the
day, with highs in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The synoptic pattern at the start of the extended period will be
characterized by mid-lvl ridging centered over the southeastern
CONUS and troughing over the western US. This pattern will
essentially reverse itself Sunday into early next week, as the
ridge retrogrades into the SW US and longwave troughing amplifies
over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure near Bermuda
will remain the main feature of interest Friday through the
weekend (although a weak tropical wave will pass to our north on
Friday with little impacts expected) maintaining moderate E-SE
low-lvl flow over SFL. Towards the end of the extended period, the
aforementioned high will shift eastward resulting in sea- breeze
driven circulations prevailing by early next week.

In terms of sensible weather, shower/storm evolution will largely
follow those of a typical easterly regime Friday-Sunday with the
best rain chances initially over the Atlantic waters/east coast in
the morning and early afternoon, with the risk of showers and
storms then increasing on the west coast later in the afternoon
as the Gulf breeze moves inland. Overall rain chances look to be
in the high-end Chc to low-end likely (i.e. 45-60%) range through
this period as near to just above climo deep-layer moisture
(PWATs 1.9-2.1 inches) will partially offset synoptic subsidence
from the ridge. As the large-scale easterly flow weakens early
next week, the diurnal evolution of daily storms may shift to
become more Interior-focused but confidence remains low.
Temperatures will likely run just above average through the period
(highs mostly in the low to mid 90s), with daily heat indices
peaking around 103-107 degrees (with the highest values west and
Interior)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Passing showers continue through the morning hours, mainly across
the Atlantic terminals. Although isolated thunderstorms might be
possible after 18Z, the best chances reside over APF with the
dominant easterly flow. Therefore, will carry VCSH for the
Atlantic terminals and VCTS for APF at this time, and update
accordingly with AMD/Tempos as necessary. Robust easterly winds
10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kts will prevail until this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Breezy and gusty easterly wind flow across the local waters today
along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5
feet over the Gulf. A slight decrease in the E-SE winds will lead to
lower seas for the end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous
through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Robust easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across
all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  79  90  81 /  50  20  50  30
West Kendall     89  77  91  79 /  50  20  50  30
Opa-Locka        89  79  91  81 /  50  20  50  20
Homestead        88  79  90  80 /  50  20  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  86  79  88  81 /  50  20  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  87  79  89  81 /  60  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   90  79  92  82 /  50  10  50  20
West Palm Beach  88  76  90  79 /  60  10  50  20
Boca Raton       88  78  90  80 /  60  20  50  30
Naples           92  76  93  78 /  70  20  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650-
     670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...17